Week Ahead

The US will publish inflation, retail sales and industrial output data in the coming week, while the Fed Chair Powell testimony and quarterly earnings reports from almost 500 companies will also attract attention. Elsewhere, important data to follow include GDP numbers for the UK and Germany, consumer and producer prices for China, industrial output, inflation and trade balance for India, and business and consumer morale for Australia. Central banks in Mexico and New Zealand will be deciding on monetary policy, while the European Commission will publish its Winter Economic Forecast.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 2/9/2020 2:43:10 PM
The US consumer price inflation will probably accelerate to 2.5 percent in January, the highest since October 2018, while the core rate should ease to a six-month low. In addition, industrial output is seen falling for a second straight month, while retail sales are set to grow at a solid pace. Other notable publications are the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment, foreign trade prices, business inventories; JOLTs job openings, and the government's budget statement.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the economy before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, and will submit identical remarks to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee a day later. On the corporate side, the earnings season continues with almost 500 companies reporting, including PepsiCo, Nvidia, Cisco systems, CME group and Astrazeneca.

Elsewhere in America, the most important releases to follow include Canada housing starts and building permits; Mexico industrial production and fixed investment; and Brazil retail sales. Meantime, policymakers in Mexico are deciding on monetary policy while Chile's central bank will be publishing the minutes of its latest meeting.

The UK will publish its preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth, alongside business investment, trade balance, manufacturing and construction output. Market forecasts point to a stagnation in Britain’s economy as the country prepared to leave the EU.

Elsewhere in Europe, the European Commission will publish its Winter Economic Forecast on Thursday, while the Eurozone is releasing the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth and several European countries, including Germany, are set to publish their flash estimates. The bloc's largest economy is seen expanding by just 0.1 percent in the three months to December, the same as in the prior period. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone industrial output and trade balance; Germany wholesale prices; France fourth-quarter jobless rate; Turkey unemployment, retail trade, industrial production and current account; and Switzerland inflation rate and unemployment data. Sweden's Riksbank will be deciding on monetary policy on Wednesday, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs after a 25bps rate hike in the previous meeting.

China's consumer and producer prices release is also keenly awaited, with forecasts pointing to a rise in consumer inflation to the highest level since 2011 amid the coronavirus outbreak; while producer prices are seen rebounding from a six-month period of deflation. Monetary indicators, vehicle sales and foreign direct investment will also be in the spotlight. Meanwhile in Japan, key data include current account, machine tool orders and tertiary industry index; while investors in India will focus on consumer and wholesale prices, industrial output and foreign trade.  

Australia will be releasing NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer sentiment and home loans. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet to set monetary policy on Wednesday, but no changes are expected. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include South Korea unemployment rate, Malaysia fourth-quarter GDP, Indonesia current account, and Philippines trade.