Week Ahead

The economic calendar will get busier in the coming week, as the US release its December jobs report, alongside foreign trade data and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Elsewhere, important data to follow include: Eurozone business survey and inflation; Germany retail sales and factory orders; Japan consumer confidence and household spending; China Caixin Services PMI, and consumer and producer prices; Australia foreign trade and retail sales; and India industrial output.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 1/3/2020 5:38:45 PM
The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 160 thousand in December, after a larger-than-expected 266 thousand rise the previous month. In addition, the trade deficit is seen narrowing to USD 44.0 billion in November, which would be the smallest gap since May 2018; while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably pick up from the previous period's 53.9, suggesting a stronger pace of expansion in the US service sector during December. Other notable publications are factory orders, ADP employment change, and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.

Other relevant publications in America include Canada unemployment rate, trade balance, Ivey PMI, producer prices, and housing data; Mexico consumer prices, industrial output, consumer confidence, and auto exports; and Brazil inflation rate, industrial production, Markit Services PMI, and car production.

Meanwhile, it will be a soft week in the UK, with final readings of Markit PMI expected to confirm the services sector contracted by the most in nine months. Halifax house prices, alongside new car sales and final Q3 labour productivity are also awaited.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone business survey will probably point to a stronger morale among European firms during December, while the bloc's inflation rate is seen picking up to a six-month high. The Euro Area, Germany and France will publish final figures of Markit Services PMI while Spain and Italy will release preliminary estimates. Other key highlights include: Eurozone unemployment rate and retail sales; Germany factory orders, industrial output, foreign trade, and retail trade; France consumer survey, industrial activity and trade balance; Spain consumer and business sentiment; Switzerland inflation, retail sales and jobless rate. Sweden's central bank will be releasing the minutes of its December meeting, at which policymakers hiked rates by 25bps, ending five years of negative interest rates.

Japanese markets reopen on Monday as investors return from New Year's holidays. On the economic data front, important releases to watch for include consumer confidence, household spending, average wages, coincident and leading indexes, and final figures for Jibun Bank PMIs. Meanwhile, China's consumer and producer prices will be keenly watched, as well as Caixin Services PMI and foreign exchange reserves. Australia will be releasing trade balance, retail sales and building permits, alongside Ai Group indexes for manufacturing, construction and service sectors; while India will be providing updated data for industrial production and Markit Services PMI.

Elsewhere, the central bank of Israel will probably slash interest rates by 15bps when it meets on Thursday, while other important releases include: Taiwan and the Philippines trade balance and inflation data; Singapore Markit PMI and retail sales; Malaysia industrial production; Hong Kong Markit PMI; and Indonesia and Thailand consumer morale.


Friday January 03 202