Week Ahead

Next week the US jobs report will be keenly watched, alongside ISM PMIs, foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders and the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment; UK Markit Construction PMI; Eurozone final Q3 GDP and retail trade; Germany factory orders; China Caixin PMIs; Japan household spending and wages; Australia Q3 GDP, trade balance and retail sales; and Brazil and Turkey Q3 GDP data. Central banks in Australia, India and Canada will be deciding on monetary policy.

The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 183 thousand in November, after a larger-than-expected 128 thousand rise last month. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to another month of contraction in manufacturing activity during November; while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably ease from the previous month. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.

Other key releases to follow in America include Canada employment figures, trade balance, Ivey PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico Markit Manufacturing PMI, business and consumer confidence, gross fixed investment and auto production; and Brazil third-quarter GDP figures, inflation rate, foreign trade, Markit PMIs, industrial and car production. Central banks in Canada and Chile will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK, final readings of Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI are expected to confirm ongoing weakness in those sectors, while a preliminary figure for Construction PMI should point to another month of contraction in construction activity. New car sales and Halifax house prices will also be in the spotlight.
 
Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone, Germany and France will publish their final estimates of Markit PMIs while many other countries such as Spain and Italy will release flash readings. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone final estimate of third-quarter GDP and employment, alongside retail sales and producer inflation; Germany factory orders and industrial production; France trade balance; Italy retail trade; Spain consumer confidence and unemployment change; Turkey third-quarter GDP growth and inflation rate; Switzerland retail sales and consumer price inflation; and Greece third-quarter GDP data. The National Bank of Poland will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

In China, Caixin PMIs will provide an update on manufacturing and service sectors during November, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in factory output growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile in Japan, the Jibun Bank will be releasing final PMIs for November. Other data include household spending, average cash earnings, and preliminary readings of October's leading and coincident indexes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at current levels when it meets on Tuesday. On the economic data front, important releases include third-quarter GDP growth, trade balance, retail sales, building permits, AIG and CommBank PMIs. The Reserve Bank of India will also be deciding on monetary policy. Policymakers are seen cutting interest rates for the sixth time this year in an attempt to boost slowing economic growth. The country's Markit PMIs will also be keenly watched.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea final third-quarter GDP, trade balance, consumer inflation and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Indonesia and Thailand inflation rates; Malaysia foreign trade; and the Philippines unemployment and inflation.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/29/2019 3:46:28 PM



 


Friday November 29 2019 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
AU
HIA New Home Sales MoM OCT -0.5% 5.7%
12:01 AM
GB
GfK Consumer Confidence NOV -14 -14
12:30 AM
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY OCT 2.5% 2.7%
12:30 AM
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM OCT 0.1% 0.2%
01:00 AM
KR
Interest Rate Decision 1.25% 1.25%
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence NOV 38.7 36.2
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY OCT -7.4% -4.9%
06:00 AM
FI
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 2.2% 1.4% ®
06:00 AM
FI
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.7% 0.8% ®
07:00 AM
DK
GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q3 2.2% 2.5% ®
07:00 AM
DK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q3 0.3% 1.1% ®
07:00 AM
DK
Unemployment Rate OCT 3.7% 3.7%
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM OCT -1.9% 0.0% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY OCT 0.8% 3.4%
07:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised OCT 3.1% 3.1%
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade OCT $-1.81B $-2.07B ®
07:45 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.3% 0.3%
08:00 AM
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 1.5% 1.8%
08:00 AM
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.2% 0.2%
08:00 AM
CZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 2.5% 2.7%
08:00 AM
CZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.4% 0.6% ®
08:00 AM
CH
KOF Leading Indicators NOV 93 94.8 ®
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 1.6% 1%
08:30 AM
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 0.3% 0.2% ®
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate NOV 5% 5%
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change NOV -16K 5K ®