Week Ahead

Meeting minutes from the Fed, ECB and RBA will be keenly watched next week for further clues on the next monetary policy steps, while the PBoC will provide an update on interest rates. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be in the spotlight, alongside US housing data and existing home sales; UK CBI factory orders; Eurozone flash consumer confidence; Germany final Q3 GDP data; and Japan trade balance and inflation rate.

In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for a third time this year during its October meeting, but signaled that it was pressing pause on future easing unless it sees a serious slowdown in economic activity. Regarding the US economic calendar, notable publications are flash Markit PMIs, building permits and housing starts, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, overall net capital flows, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Investors will also be expecting any further developments on trade as the temporary general licence for US exports of component and services to Huawei expires.

Elsewhere in America, data to folow include on Canada inflation rate, retail sales, ADP employment change, and manufacturing sales; Mexico and Brazil Mid-month inflation rates, alongside Brazil net payrolls, business confidence and federal tax revenues. Also, Chile and Peru will be publishing third-quarter GDP figures.

In the UK, flash Markit PMIs will be released for the first time on Friday. It "comes at a time of the economy suffering from heightened Brexit-related uncertainty, an upcoming general election and a newly-split Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England", the source noted. In addition, the CBI is set to publish its gauge for factory orders and the ONS will release updated data for public finances.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will publish the account of October's policy meeting, while flash Markit PMI figures for the Eurozone, Germany and France will also be in the spotlight. Forecasts suggest the bloc's services activity growth accelerated during November while the manufacturing sector is seen contracting further. Traders will also keep an eye on the Eurozone flash consumer confidence, construction output and current account; Germany final third-quarter GDP data and producer prices; France business survey; Italy factory orders; Spain trade balance and industrial orders; Switzerland third-quarter industrial production and foreign trade; and Turkey consumer confidence.
 
The People's Bank of China will provide an update on its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Wednesday, which was set at 4.2 percent on October 21th. The LPR, which replaced the central bank’s benchmark lending rate, was designed to steer borrowing costs lower for companies and support the economy amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Investors will also focus on foreign direct investment. The Bank of Australia will be releasing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting and the CommBank will be publishing flash figures for November’s PMIs. Meanwhile in Japan, important releases include trade balance, consumer inflation, all industry activity index, and flash Jibun Bank PMIs.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region are: Thailand third-quarter GDP growth and trade balance; New Zealand Services NZ PSI; Hong Kong inflation and unemployment rate; Taiwan export orders and current account; Singapore non-oil exports and current account; Malaysia inflation; and Indonesia interest rate decision.

Local elections in Hong Kong, which are set to be held on November 24th, will be keenly watched, after the economy fell into recession for the first time in a decade as social unrest continues.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/15/2019 6:06:56 PM