Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will be deciding on interest rates next week, but no changes are expected. Other important releases include: US flash Markit PMIs, housing data and current account; UK inflation and retail trade; Eurozone flash consumer confidence; Germany investor morale; Japan trade balance, inflation and flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI; and Australia Q1 house prices. Central bank decisions in Norway, Brazil, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines will also be in the spotlight.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 6/14/2019 4:48:20 PM
The Federal Reserve will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets on Wednesday, with investors turning their attention to the latest FOMC Economic Projections for further clues on monetary policy. Markets are pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of this year amid a slowdown in jobs growth and muted inflation pressures. Regarding the US economic calendar, notable publications are flash Markit PMIs, housing starts and building permits, existing home sales, current account, overall net capital flows, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Elsewhere in America, key reports to follow include Canada inflation, retail sales, ADP employment change, and foreign stock investment; Brazil business confidence; and Argentina Q1 GDP growth. The Central Bank of Brazil will be deciding on monetary policy, but interest rates are expected to be held at 6.5 percent.

The Bank of England will also deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, important releases include Britain's consumer and producer price indexes, retail trade, public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial trends orders.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone's flash consumer sentiment is forecast to deteriorate further in June and flash Markit PMIs are expected to point to a further contraction in factory activity, while Germany's investor morale will probably worsen. Market players will also keep an eye on the Eurozone first-quarter wages data, construction activity, trade balance and current account; and Turkey unemployment and consumer confidence. The Norges Bank will meet to decide on interest rates, with market consensus pointing to a 25bps rate hike.

The Bank of Japan will decide on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Also, the country will publish May’s trade figures with markets anticipating a fall in exports and a rise in imports, inflation rate and flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI. The core consumer price index is projected to slow to 0.8 percent, well below the central bank’s target. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of their last monetary policy meetings. Other key data for Australia include Q1 house price index, Westpac leading index, and flash CommBank PMIs.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: China house price index; New Zealand Q1 GDP growth and current account; South Korea producer inflation; Thailand trade balance; and interest rate decisions from Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines.