Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing May’s jobs report, alongside ISM PMIs, trade balance and factory orders. Elsewhere, the ECB, RBA and RBI will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important data include: UK Markit PMIs; Eurozone final Q1 GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and retail sales; Germany industrial output, factory orders and trade balance; China Caixin PMIs; Japan Nikkei PMIs; and Australia Q1 GDP and trade balance.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report. Market forecasts point to a payroll increase of 180 thousand in May, while annual wage growth is expected to remain close to its strongest level in a decade. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to pick up while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably remain steady during May. The trade deficit is likely to widen to $50.2 billion in April amid ongoing trade tensions with China. Other notable publications are ADP employment change, factory orders, construction spending, total vehicle sales, and final readings of Markit PMIs, wholesale inventories and nonfarm productivity.

Other key data for America include Canada unemployment, trade balance, Ivey PMI and RBC Manufacturing PMI; Brazil and Mexico consumer inflation rates and Markit manufacturing PMIs..

In Europe, the ECB will decide on monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, the Eurozone will release the final estimate of Q1 GDP growth, alongside May’s consumer prices, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in inflation to a 12-month low. Other key publications are the Eurozone unemployment, retail sales and final Markit PMIs; the UK Markit PMIs, Germany industrial production, factory orders and trade balance; Greece Q1 GDP growth; and Turkey consumer and producer price inflation. Investors will also follow Italy’s budget developments and US President Donald Trump three-day state visit to the UK. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to set monetary policy, with markets expecting a 25bps cut bringing the cash rate to a record low. Other important releases include Q1 GDP growth, trade figures, AIG PMIs, current account, retail sales, ANZ job advertisements and home loans. In China, Markit will be publishing its Caixin PMIs, providing an update on private sector activity during May. Meanwhile in Japan investors will be focusing on manufacturing and services PMIs, household spending and preliminary leading economic index. Also, market players will keep an eye on the latest interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India. The country will also be releasing Nikkei PMIs for manufacturing and services sectors.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea final Q1 GDP growth and consumer inflation; the Philippines unemployment rate and inflation; and Malaysia trade balance.

Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
6/1/2019 10:40:08 AM