Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing February's jobs report, alongside foreign trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, new home sales and construction spending. Elsewhere, the ECB, RBA and BoC will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important releases include: UK Services and Construction PMIs; Eurozone and Japan final Q4 GDP growth; Germany factory orders; China foreign trade, inflation data and Caixin Services PMI; and Australia Q4 GDP growth, trade balance and retail sales. China's National People's Congress will also be keenly watched.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report. Market forecasts point to a payroll increase of 185 thousand in February, after January's 11-month high; while annual wage growth is expected to remain close to its strongest level in a decade. In addition, the December trade deficit is likely to widen from a five-month low seen in November; and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to recover from a six-month low in January. ADP employment change, new home sales, construction spending, non-farm productivity and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism will also be keenly watched, alongside the government's monthly budget statement and the final reading of Markit Services PMI.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will meet to set monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important data include Canada employment figures, foreign trade, Ivey PMI and housing starts; and Mexico inflation rate.

In the UK, investors will be waiting for updated figures of Services and Construction PMIs, Halifax house prices and Q1 consumer inflation expectations. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, important releases include the Eurozone final estimate of Q4 GDP growth and employment, alongside retail sales, producer inflation and the final Markit Services PMI; Germany factory orders; France trade balance and industrial activity; Italy retail sales and industrial output; Greece Q4 GDP growth; and Turkey interest rate decision and inflation rate.

China will be releasing February's trade figures, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Also, the Caixin Services PMI is set to recover from a three-month low; consumer inflation is likely to fall to a new 13-month low; and producer prices should pick up from a near two-year low. In Japan, investors will focus on final Q4 GDP growth, Nikkei Services PMI, January’s preliminary coincident and leading economic indexes and current account. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hold its cash rate at current levels when it meets on Tuesday. The country will also be publishing figures for Q4 GDP growth, trade balance and retail sales. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea final Q4 GDP growth and inflation; Malaysia interest rate decision and trade balance and the Philippines inflation.

Markets will also be focusing on China's National People's Congress from Tuesday, as Premier Li Keqiang will deliver the annual Work Report, in which he will announce the GDP growth target for 2019 and set the country's policy priorities for the coming year.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/1/2019 6:52:43 PM



 


Wednesday April 24 2019 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY Q1 1.6% 1.8%
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ Q1 0.3% 0.4%
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY Q1 1.2% 1.7%
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Weighted Mean CPI QoQ Q1 0.1% 0.4%
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate YoY Q1 1.3% 1.8%
01:30 AM
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ Q1 0% 0.5%
04:30 AM
JP
All Industry Activity Index MoM FEB -0.2% 0.0% ®
05:00 AM
JP
Coincident Index Final FEB 100.4 99.6 ®
05:00 AM
JP
Leading Economic Index Final FEB 97.1 96.3 ®
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence APR 101 103 ®
07:00 AM
ZA
Consumer Confidence Q1 2 7
07:00 AM
ES
Industrial Orders YoY FEB 4.5% -0.8% ®
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence APR 105.5 102.1
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization APR 75% 74.3%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate APR 99.2 99.7 ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Current Conditions APR 103.3 103.9 ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Expectations APR 95.2 95.6
08:30 AM
ES
Balance of Trade FEB €-2.63B €-4.48B
08:30 AM
GB
Public Sector Net Borrowing MAR £-0.84B £0.51B ®
09:40 AM
DE
10-Year Bund Auction 0.02% -0.05%
10:20 AM
ID
Loan Growth YoY MAR 11.55% 12.13%
11:00 AM
US
MBA Mortgage Applications 19/APR -7.3% -3.5%
11:00 AM
US
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 19/APR 4.46% 4.44%
11:55 AM
BR
Net Payrolls MAR -43.2K 173.14K
01:00 PM
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM APR 0.4% 0.18%
01:00 PM
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY APR 4.38% 3.95%
01:00 PM
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM APR -0.03% 0.26%
02:00 PM
BR
Federal Tax Revenues MAR BRL109.854B BRL115.062B
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Monetary Policy Report
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 19/APR -2.129M -1.174M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 19/APR 5.479M -1.396M
03:15 PM
CA
BoC Press Conference
05:00 PM
US
5-Year Note Auction 2.315% 2.172%
07:00 PM
AR
Balance of Trade MAR $1183M $460M
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 -0.3% 1%
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1 1.8% 3.1%
11:50 PM
JP
Foreign Bond Investment APR/20 ¥1170B ¥598.7B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Stock Investment by Foreigners APR/20 ¥1426.6B ¥527.4B ®
Thursday April 25 2019 Actual Previous
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report
04:00 AM
ID
Motorbike Sales YoY MAR 21%
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Rate Q1 14.45%
07:00 AM
ES
PPI YoY MAR 1.9%
07:30 AM
ID
Deposit Facility Rate APR 5.25%
07:30 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 6%
07:30 AM
ID
Lending Facility Rate APR 6.75%
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
09:30 AM
ZA
PPI YoY MAR 4.7%
09:30 AM
ZA
PPI MoM MAR 0.3%
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders APR 1
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Business Optimism Index Q2 -23
11:00 AM
TR
TCMB Interest Rate Decision 24%
12:00 PM
BR
IPCA mid-month CPI MoM APR 0.54%
12:00 PM
BR
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY APR 4.18%
12:30 PM
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY FEB 2%
12:30 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM MAR -1.6%
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM MAR -1.9%
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Continuing Jobless Claims APR/13 1653K
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims APR/20 192K
01:00 PM
MX
Retail Sales MoM FEB 1.9%
01:00 PM
MX
Retail Sales YoY FEB 0.9%
01:00 PM
RU
Business Confidence APR -2
01:30 PM
BR
Current Account MAR $-1.14B
01:30 PM
BR
Foreign Direct Investment MAR $8.40B
02:30 PM
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 19/APR 92Bcf
03:00 PM
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index APR 17
03:15 PM
AR
Consumer Confidence APR 34.8
03:30 PM
US
4-Week Bill Auction 2.400%
05:00 PM
US
7-Year Note Auction 2.281%
08:00 PM
AR
Retail Sales YoY FEB 25.0%
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence APR 100
11:30 PM
JP
Jobs/applications ratio MAR 1.63
11:30 PM
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY APR 1.1%
11:30 PM
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY APR 0.9%
11:30 PM
JP
Unemployment Rate MAR 2.3%
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production YoY Prel MAR -1.1%
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel MAR 0.7%
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales MoM MAR 0.2%
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY MAR 0.4%
EA
EU-Japan Summit
Friday April 26 2019 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
Export Prices QoQ Q1 4.4%
01:30 AM
AU
Import Prices QoQ Q1 0.5%
01:30 AM
AU
PPI QoQ Q1 0.5%
01:30 AM
AU
PPI YoY Q1 2%
06:00 AM
ID
Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q1 -11.6%
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence APR 96
08:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals MAR 39.083K
09:45 AM
IT
6-Month BOT Auction -0.062%
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims MAR -48K
10:00 AM
FR
Jobseekers Total MAR 3366K
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades APR -18
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 7.75%
11:30 AM
IN
Foreign Exchange Reserves APR/19 $414.9B
11:30 AM
IN
Deposit Growth YoY APR/12 10%
11:30 AM
IN
Bank Loan Growth YoY APR/12 13.2%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1 1.9%
12:30 PM
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1 1.8%
12:30 PM
US
PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1 1.5%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 2.2%
01:00 PM
MX
Balance of Trade MAR $1.222B
01:00 PM
MX
Economic Activity MoM FEB 0.2%
01:00 PM
MX
Economic Activity YoY FEB 1.3%
01:00 PM
RU
Corporate Profits FEB RUB1.3T
01:30 PM
BR
Bank Lending MoM MAR 0.3%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Final APR 88.8
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Final APR 113.3
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final APR 2.5%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final APR 2.5%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR 98.4
03:00 PM
CA
Budget Balance FEB C$-1.5B
05:00 PM
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 26/APR 825
Saturday April 27 2019 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
CN
Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY MAR -14%
Sunday April 28 2019 Actual Previous
ES
General Election
Monday April 29 2019 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
TR
Economic Confidence Index APR 81.9
08:00 AM
EA
Loan Growth YoY MAR 3.3%
08:00 AM
EA
M3 Money Supply YoY MAR 4.3%
08:00 AM
IT
PPI MoM MAR -0.1%
08:00 AM
IT
PPI YoY MAR 3.1%