Week Ahead

Next week the US Q4 GDP report will be keenly watched, alongside ISM Manufacturing PMI, personal income and outlays, housing data and factory orders. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK consumer confidence and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Eurozone business survey, inflation and unemployment; Germany consumer morale and retail trade; Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer sentiment and jobless rate; China NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs and NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI; and Q4 GDP growth rates from several countries such as India, Canada, Brazil and Mexico.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated fourth-quarter GDP report, after it had been delayed for almost a month due to the partial government shutdown, with market forecasts pointing to a further slowdown in economic growth from the second-quarter's four-year high. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to show a slowdown in factory activity growth during February; and the BEA will release personal income and outlays for December, as well as personal income for January. Other notable publications are December's building permits and housing starts, alongside factory orders, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices, total vehicle sales, and the final readings of Michigan consumer sentiment and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.

Other important data for America include: Canada Q4 GDP growth, inflation rate and RBC Manufacturing PMI; and Mexico and Brazil Q4 GDP growth rates, trade balance and Markit Manufacturing PMIs.

In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May heads to Parliament Tuesday to make a statement on her progress in the Brexit negotiations. On the economic data front, the Gfk consumer confidence is likely to fall to a new five-and-a-half-year low and the Markit Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to a four-month low. Also, the Bank of England will release its monetary indicators.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors await the publication of the Eurozone business survey, flash inflation rate, unemployment rate and the final Markit Manufacturing PMI; Germany consumer morale, retail trade and jobless rate; France consumer sentiment; Italy and Spain Markit Manufacturing PMIs; Switzerland Q4 GDP growth and KOF leading indicators; and Turkey trade balance. In addition, several countries are set to release updated figures for fourth-quarter GDP growth and February's Manufacturing PMIs.

In Japan, industrial production is forecast to fall at the fastest pace in a year and retail trade growth is likely to slow in January. Consumer confidence and unemployment data will also be in the spotlight. Meanwhile in China investors will focus on Manufacturing PMI readings from both the NBS and Caixin, with both indicators pointing to further contraction in the sector, while Non-manufacturing PMI from the NBS will also be followed. India's GDP growth figures are expected to show a further slowdown in economic growth during the October-December period and the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is set to fall to five-month low in February. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia AIG Manufacturing Index, private sector credit and Q4 construction work done; New Zealand foreign trade; South Korea interest rate decision; Hong Kong Q4 GDP growth; and Indonesia inflation rate.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
2/22/2019 3:47:57 PM