Week Ahead

Next week the FOMC minutes will be keenly watched, alongside US inflation, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, trade balance and factory orders; UK monthly GDP, industrial output and foreign trade; ECB meeting accounts; Eurozone business survey, retail trade and jobless rate; Germany factory orders, industrial production and trade balance; China inflation and producer prices; Japan consumer confidence; and Australia business morale. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn focus to the FOMC minutes release for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy path. In addition, the highly anticipated consumer price index report for December will probably show a decline in inflation to 1.9 percent from November's 2.2 percent on lower energy prices, while the core inflation is set to remain unchanged at 2.2 percent. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to a slowdown in the service sector during December; while the Census Bureau is set to publish trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, new home sales, and wholesale inventories, which may be postponed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown. Other important data include JOLTs job openings, consumer credit change, NFIB Business Optimism Index, and the government's monthly budget statement.

Meanwhile, US-China trade talks will be in the spotlight in the coming week on hopes that the world's largest economies could reach an agreement on trade when they meet in Beijing on January 7th-8th.

Other highlights for America include: Canada trade balance, Ivey PMI and new housing prices; and Mexico and Brazil inflation rates. The Bank of Canada will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

In the UK the ONS will release monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output, trade balance and final figures of third-quarter labor productivity. The Halifax House Price Index will also be released and is expected to show a slight recovery in annual home price growth from a near six-year low seen in the three months to November. Elsewhere, investors will be waiting for the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps after the Bank's decision in December to end its bond-buying programme. In addition, key data to watch for include the Eurozone business survey, retail trade and jobless rate; Germany factory orders, industrial production, trade balance and retail sales; France consumer confidence, foreign trade and industrial output; Italy unemployment, retail trade and industrial output; and Switzerland inflation, retail trade and unemployment.

In China traders will focus on December's consumer and producer prices. Annual inflation rate is expected to ease further to 2.1 percent from a four-month low in November, and producer prices are set to rise 1.6 percent, the slowest pace since October 2016. Meanwhile, Japan will see the release of consumer confidence, current account, average cash earnings and household spending; while in Australia, important data include trade balance, NAB Business Confidence, retail sales, building permits, and AIG indexes for manufacturing, services and construction sectors. Other key figures for the Asia-Pacific region are India industrial production, South Korea unemployment, and Taiwan inflation and trade balance.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/5/2019 11:26:05 AM



 


Friday January 04 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 5.1% 6%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI DEC 53.9 53.8
04:00 AM
MY
Balance of Trade NOV MYR7.6B MYR16.3B
07:00 AM
DK
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.9% 3.9%
07:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised NOV 3.3% 3.3%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY DEC 0.5% 1.9%
07:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM DEC -0.7% 0.4% ®
08:15 AM
ES
Markit Services PMI DEC 54 54
08:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Services PMI DEC 50.5 50.3
08:50 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Final DEC 49 55.1
08:55 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Final DEC 51.8 53.3
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate DEC 5% 5%
08:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change DEC -14K -16K
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Final DEC 51.2 53.4
09:30 AM
GB
Net Lending to Individuals MoM NOV £4.4B £4.8B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending NOV £3.45B £4.09B ®
09:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit NOV £0.924B £0.754B ®
09:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals NOV 63.73K 66.71K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI DEC 51.2 50.4
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Flash DEC 1.6% 1.9%
10:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash DEC 1% 1%
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change DEC 9.3K 94.1K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg DEC -18.9K 89.9K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate DEC 65.4% 65.4%
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg DEC 28.3K 4.1K
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate DEC 5.6% 5.6%
01:30 PM
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM DEC 0.4% 0.2%
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate DEC 3.9% 3.7%
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls DEC 312K 176K ®
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final DEC 54.4 54.7
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final DEC 54.4 54.7
03:15 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
04:00 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 28/DEC 0.007M -0.046M
04:00 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 28/DEC 6.89M 3.003M
06:30 PM
US
Fed Barkin Speech
06:30 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
Saturday January 05 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
03:15 PM
US
Fed Harker Speech
Sunday January 06 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
09:30 PM
AU
AIG Manufacturing Index DEC 49.5 51.3
Monday January 07 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY NOV 1.1% 5.2% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM NOV 1.4% 0.1% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM NOV -1.0% 0.2% ®
08:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI DEC 53.3 51.3
10:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.6% 0.6% ®
10:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales YoY NOV 1.1% 2.3% ®
02:00 PM
IL
Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a DEC 59.7 57.2
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity DEC 59.9 65.2
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment DEC 56.3 58.4
03:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI DEC 57.6 60.7
05:40 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
CN
US-China Trade Talks
Tuesday January 08 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Balance of Trade NOV A$1.925B A$2.013B ®
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence DEC 42.7 42.9
05:30 AM
NL
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 2% 2%
06:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate DEC 2.7% 2.5%
07:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM NOV -1.9% -0.8% ®
07:30 AM
CH
Retail Sales YoY NOV -0.5% 1% ®
07:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade NOV €-5.1B €-4.1B
10:00 AM
EA
Business Confidence DEC 0.82 1.04 ®
10:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment DEC 107.3 109.5
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Sentiment DEC 1.1 3.4
10:00 AM
EA
Services Sentiment DEC 12.0 13.4 ®
11:00 AM
BR
Industrial Production YoY NOV -0.9% 0.8% ®
11:00 AM
IE
Unemployment Rate DEC 5.3% 5.3%
11:45 AM
ES
Business Confidence DEC -2.7 0.0 ®
01:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade NOV C$-2.06B C$-0.85B ®
03:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings NOV 6.888M 7.131M ®
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/04 -6.27M -4.5M
10:30 PM
AU
AIG Services Index DEC 52.1 55.1
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate DEC 3.8% 3.8%
CN
US-China Trade Talks
Wednesday January 09 2019 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM NOV -9.1% -1.5%
07:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade s.a NOV €19.0B €17.9B ®
07:00 AM
DE
Exports MoM s.a NOV -0.4% 0.9% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Imports MoM s.a NOV -1.6% 0.8% ®
07:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade NOV €20.5B €18.9B ®
07:00 AM
RO
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.9% 4%
07:30 AM
CH
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 0.7% 0.9%
07:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence DEC 87 91 ®
08:00 AM
CZ