Week Ahead

Next week the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important releases include: US final Q3 GDP growth, durable goods orders, personal spending and income, PCE prices and housing data; UK final Q3 GDP growth, consumer confidence, inflation and retail sales; Germany consumer and business morale; Japan inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data; New Zealand Q3 GDP growth; and interest rate decisions from Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn their attention to next week's FOMC meeting at which the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates by 25 bps. The Fed has already raised its benchmark federal funds rate three times this year supported by solid economic growth and strong labor market and despite heavy criticism from President Donald Trump and recent volatility in financial markets. Fed officials will also update their forecasts having previously suggested three rate increases are likely in 2019. Regarding the economic calendar, the final estimate of Q3 GDP growth, November's durable goods orders, alongside personal spending, income and PCE prices will be watched. Traders will also be looking for indications about the state of the US housing market as key data such as building permits, housing starts, existing home sales and NAHB housing index are released. Other important data include: Q3 current account; overall net capital flows; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Other important releases for America include Canada monthly GDP, inflation and retail trade; Mexico and Colombia interest rate decisions; and Argentina Q3 GDP growth.

In the UK the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected as Brexit uncertainties remain. Prime Minister Theresa May has postponed the final vote on her withdrawal agreement in order to seek new assurances from Brussels. However, the EU says it is not open for renegotiation and most likely she will fail to gather enough support when she eventually brings it back for a vote. On the economic data front, November's inflation is expected to slow down; the Gfk consumer confidence to deteriorate further; and the final estimate of Q3 GDP growth should confirm the economy grew at its fastest pace in two years on the back of household spending and exports. Retail sales, CBI factory orders and current account will also be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, market players will keep an eye on the Eurozone consumer survey, construction activity and trade data; Germany and Italy consumer and business climate; France industry sentiment; and Turkey consumer morale and unemployment. Also, central banks from Sweden and Czechia will be deciding on monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan will also be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. The country will also be publishing trade figures and inflation rate for November. Core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1 percent. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing its minutes from December’s meeting, with investors waiting for further clues on the next monetary policy move. Also, the country's employment data, HIA new home sales and Westpac leading index will be followed. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand Q3 GDP growth; Malaysia inflation; and interest decisions from Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/14/2018 6:06:35 PM



 


Friday December 14 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY NOV 5.9% 5.7%
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY NOV 5.4% 5.9%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY NOV 8.1% 8.6%
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate OCT 3.3% 3.3%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Inflation YoY NOV 4.64% 5.28%
07:30 AM
DE
Bundesbank Semi-Annual Forecasts
08:00 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 11.28% 11.26%
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 49.6 55.1
08:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 49.7 50.8
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 52.5 53.3
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 51.5 51.8
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 51.4 51.8
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 51.4 53.4
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.5%
11:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
12:00 PM
IL
Inflation Rate MoM NOV -0.3% 0.3%
12:00 PM
RU
Monetary Policy Report
01:20 PM
IN
Balance of Trade NOV $-16.67B $-17.13B
01:30 PM
EA
ECB Angeloni Speech
01:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM NOV 0.2% 1% ®
01:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.2% 1.1% ®
02:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY NOV 3.9% 3.8% ®
02:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM NOV 0.6% -0.2% ®
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash DEC 53.9 55.3
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash DEC 53.6 54.7
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash DEC 53.4 54.7
03:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM OCT 0.6% 0.5% ®
EU
European Council Meeting
GB
Parliamentary Vote on Brexit Deal
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Saturday December 15 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY NOV 9.3% 8.6%
10:30 AM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
Monday December 17 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade NOV $-2.05B $-1.77B ®
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate SEP 11.4% 11.1%
09:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade OCT €3.784B €1.274B
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM NOV -0.2% 0.2%
10:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV 1% 1.1%
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV 1.9% 2.2%
10:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade OCT €14B €12.8B ®
11:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Monthly Report
01:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index DEC 10.90 23.3
03:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index DEC 56 60
04:30 PM
BR
Business Confidence DEC 63.8 63.2
09:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows OCT $31.3B $30.8B
09:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows OCT $42B $-29.2B ®
09:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment OCT $1.7B $-11.5B
Tuesday December 18 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
02:00 AM
AU
HIA New Home Sales MoM NOV 3.6% -0.8%
06:45 AM
CH
SECO Economic Forecasts
08:30 AM
HK
Unemployment Rate NOV 2.8% 2.8%
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate DEC 101 102
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Expectations DEC 97.3 98.7
09:00 AM
DE
Ifo Current Conditions DEC 104.7 105.5 ®
09:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY NOV 3% 3.2%
01:00 PM
HU
Deposit Interest Rate DEC -0.15% -0.15%
01:00 PM
HU
Interest Rate Decision 0.9% 0.9%
01:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM NOV 5% -0.4% ®
01:30 PM
US
Building Permits NOV 1.328M 1.265M ®
01:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM NOV 3.2% -1.6% ®
01:30 PM
US
Housing Starts NOV 1.256M 1.217M ®
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 -3.5% -4.0% ®
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 -0.7% -4.1% ®
07:00 PM
AR
Unemployment Rate Q3 9.0% 9.6%
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 14/DEC 3.45M -10.18M
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY NOV 0.1% 8.2%
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade NOV ¥-737B ¥-450B ®
CN
President Xi Jinping Speech
Wednesday December 19 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 0.2% 0.6%
07:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM NOV 0.1% 0.3%
07:05 AM
TH
Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV 1.8% 1.9%
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 2.3% 2.4%
09:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.2% 0.1%
10:00 AM
EA
Construction Output YoY OCT 1.8% 4.8% ®
10:30 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders DEC 8 10
11:00 AM
EU
News Conference on Italy Budget Talks
12:05 PM
BR
Consumer Confidence DEC 114.3 113.6
01:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV 1.5% 1.6%
01:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM NOV -0.4% 0.3%
01:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 1.7% 2.4%
01:30 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate NOV 4.8% 4.7%
01:30 PM
US
Current Account Q3 $-124.8B $-101.2B ®
02:00 PM
CH
SNB Quarterly Bulletin
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM NOV 1.9% 1.4%
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales NOV 5.32M 5.22M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 14/DEC 1.766M 2.087M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 14/DEC -0.497M -1.208M
07:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.25%
07:00 PM
US
FOMC Economic Projections
07:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
08:00 PM
SA
Interest Rate Decision 3.0% 2.75%
08:30 PM
AE
Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 2.5%
CN
Central Economic Work Conference
Thursday December 20 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Employment Change NOV 37K 28.6K ®
12:30 AM
AU
Full Time Employment Chg NOV -6.4K 39.5K ®
12:30 AM
AU
Part Time Employment Chg NOV 43.4K -10.8K ®
12:30 AM
AU
Unemployment Rate NOV 5.1% 5%
01:30 AM
HK
Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 2.5%
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
05:30 AM
NL
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.5% 3.7%
07:00 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 6.0% 6.0%
07:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade NOV CHF3.07B CHF2.55B ®
08:30 AM
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision -0.25% -0.5%
08:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Report
09:20 AM
TW
Interest Rate Decision 1.375% 1.375%
09:30 AM
SK
Unemployment Rate NOV 5.1% 5.2%
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM NOV 1.2% -0.4%
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY NOV 3.8% 2.8% ®