Week Ahead

Next week important releases include US inflation, retail sales, industrial output and flash Markit PMIs; UK unemployment, wage growth, trade balance and monthly GDP; Eurozone flash Markit PMIs; Germany investor morale and trade balance; Turkey Q3 GDP growth; China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan business survey, final Q3 GDP growth and machinery orders; Australia business and consumer morale; India inflation and industrial output; and interest rate decisions from the ECB, Brazil, Switzerland, Turkey and Norway.

The highly anticipated US consumer price index report for November will probably show a slowdown in inflation to 2.4 percent from October's 2.5 percent, while the core inflation is set to accelerate to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent. Figures are likely to remain above the Fed's 2 percent target and to support the FOMC's decision to reaffirm its monetary tightening stance for this year. Meanwhile the country’s retail sales and industrial production figures for November will also be watched. Other important data include: flash Markit PMIs; producer and foreign trade prices; JOLTs job openings; and business inventories.

Other important releases for America include Canada new housing price index, housing starts and building permits; and Brazil retail sales. Also, the Central Bank of Brazil is likely to leave its monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.5 percent amid reduced political uncertainty and slowing inflation.

In the UK the parliament will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit agreement, which needs the backing of at least 320 MPs to pass. The outcome is uncertain, as many say she will fail to gather enough support. Regarding the economic calendar, unemployment rate is set to remain steady at 4.1 percent, after rising unexpectedly in the prior period, and wage growth is likely to advance to an annual 3 percent, matching third quarter's three-year high. The ONS will also publish monthly GDP, industrial production, construction output and trade balance.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will decide on monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. It will be the last meeting of the year and investors will be waiting to see if Mario Draghi strikes a more cautious tone amid a slowdown in global economic growth. Still, he is unlikely to signal any change in the ECB’s policy path. In addition, the Eurozone flash Markit PMIs are expected to show a slight improvement in business conditions across the service sector while manufacturing growth is seen to slow further following the previous month's 26-month low. Market players will also focus on the Eurozone industrial output; Germany ZEW economic sentiment, trade balance and final inflation; and Turkey Q3 GDP growth. The Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Central Bank of Turkey will also be deciding on rates next week, but no changes are expected.

China will be publishing November’s industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and monetary indicators. Output is projected to hold steady at 5.9 percent and retail trade growth is likely to pick up to 9 percent. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a further deterioration in big manufacturers' morale amid concerns over global growth and US-China tariff tensions. Traders are also eyeing the publication of Japan's final estimate of Q3 GDP growth, current account, machinery orders and flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. Australia will publish NAB Business Confidence, Westpac Consumer Confidence and Q3 home prices. Meanwhile in India, November’s inflation rate, alongside wholesale prices, industrial production and balance of trade will be in the spotlight. Market forecasts point to a slowdown in consumer price growth to 2.8 percent in November from October's year-low of 3.31 percent.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/7/2018 7:10:50 PM



 


Friday December 07 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
05:00 AM
JP
Coincident Index Prel OCT 104.5 101.6 ®
05:00 AM
JP
Leading Economic Index Prel OCT 100.5 99.6 ®
07:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM OCT -0.5% 0.1% ®
07:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q3 4.3% 4.1%
07:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q3 1.9% 1.5% ®
07:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM OCT 1.2% -1.6% ®
07:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade OCT €-4.1B €-5.4B ®
08:00 AM
SK
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 4.6% 4.5%
08:00 AM
SK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 1.1% 1.2%
09:00 AM
BG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 3.1% 3.4%
09:00 AM
BG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.7% 0.8%
09:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM OCT 0.1% -0.8%
09:30 AM
GB
Consumer Inflation Expectations Q4 3.2% 3%
10:00 AM
CY
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 3.7% 4.0%
10:00 AM
CY
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.8% 0.8%
10:00 AM
EA
Employment Change YoY Final Q3 1.3% 1.5%
10:00 AM
EA
Employment Change QoQ Final Q3 0.2% 0.4%
10:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q3 1.6% 2.2%
10:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q3 0.2% 0.4%
10:00 AM
MT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 7.5% 6.2% ®
11:00 AM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 4.05% 4.56%
12:00 PM
IN
Current Account Q3 $-19.1B $-15.8B
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves NOV $462.1B $459.6B
01:30 PM
CA
Employment Change NOV 94.1K 11.2K
01:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg NOV 89.9K 33.9K
01:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate NOV 65.4% 65.2%
01:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg NOV 4.1K -22.6K
01:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate NOV 5.6% 5.8%
01:30 PM
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM NOV 0.2% 0.1% ®
01:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.7% 3.7%
01:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls NOV 155K 237K ®
02:00 PM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 4.72% 4.9%
03:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM OCT 0.8% 0.7% ®
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel DEC 97.5 97.5
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel DEC 86.1 88.1
03:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel DEC 2.4% 2.6%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel DEC 2.7% 2.8%
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel DEC 115.2 112.3
05:15 PM
US
Fed Brainard Speech
Saturday December 08 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade NOV $44.74B $34.01B
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY NOV 5.4% 15.6%
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY NOV 3.0% 21.4%
Sunday December 09 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 2.2% 2.5%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY NOV 2.7% 3.3%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM NOV -0.3% 0.2%
09:30 PM
AU
RBA Kent Speech
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account OCT ¥1309.9B ¥1821.6B
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Annualized Final Q3 -2.5% 2.8% ®
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 -0.6% 0.7% ®
Monday December 10 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Home Loans MoM OCT 2.2% -1%
05:00 AM
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook NOV 52.2 50.6
06:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate NOV 2.5% 2.4%
07:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade OCT €18.3B €18.3B ®
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 1.6% 5.3% ®
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 -1.1% 0.6% ®
08:00 AM
CZ
Unemployment Rate NOV 2.8% 2.8%
08:00 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 1.8% 1.5%
08:00 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 9.5% 2.9%
09:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM OCT 0.1% -0.1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production MoM OCT -0.9% 0.2%
09:30 AM
GB
GDP MoM OCT 0.1% 0%
09:30 AM
GB
GDP YoY OCT 1.5% 1.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY OCT 3.8% 3%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY OCT -0.8% 0%
09:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM OCT -0.6% 0%
09:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg OCT 0.4% 0.6%
09:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY OCT -1% 0.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade OCT £-3.3B £-2.331B ®
01:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts NOV 215.9K 206.8K ®
03:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings OCT 7.079M 6.96M ®
11:50 PM
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q4 5.5 6.5
Tuesday December 11 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
House Price Index QoQ Q3 -1.5% -0.7%
12:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence NOV 3 5 ®
01:00 AM
PH
Balance of Trade OCT $-4212M $-3723M ®
09:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate OCT 4.1% 4.1%
09:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus OCT 3.3% 3.1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change NOV 21.9K 23.2K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Employment Change SEP 79K 23K
10:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index DEC -21.0 -22.0
10:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index DEC -17.5 -24.1
10:00 AM
DE
ZEW Current Conditions DEC 45.3 58.2
01:30 PM
US
Core PPI MoM NOV 0.3% 0.5%
01:30 PM
US
PPI MoM NOV 0.1% 0.6%
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 7/DEC -10.18M 5.36M
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate NOV 3.8% 3.9%
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index DEC 104.4 104.3
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change DEC 0.1% 2.8%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM OCT 7.6% -18.3%
Wednesday December 12 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:30 AM
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM OCT 1.9% -1.2% ®
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 5.2% 5.1%
08:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY NOV 2.1% 2.4%
08:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM NOV -0.1% -0.1%
10:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY OCT