Week Ahead


Next week the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan will be deciding on monetary policy. Key economic data include: US inflation rate, retail trade, industrial output and Michigan consumer sentiment; UK inflation, wage data, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales and trade balance; Eurozone industrial output; Japan machinery orders; China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Australia consumer and business morale; India industrial production and inflation; Turkey Q1 GDP growth.

It will be a busy week in the US, as investors turn their attention to next week's FOMC meeting at which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its target short-term interest rate for the second time this year. Regarding the economic calendar, the most important releases are: inflation rate; retail trade; industrial output; the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment; producer and foreign trade prices; business inventories; NFIB Business Optimism Index; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; overall net capital flows; and the government's budget statement.

Besides, market-participants also will be eyeing a meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which will held in Singapore on June 12th.

The UK will publish inflation and producer prices, wage data and unemployment, retail trade, industrial production, trade balance and construction output. 

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will provide an update on monetary policy and is likely to announce an intention to end a massive bond purchase scheme later this year. Markets will also focus on: Eurozone industrial production, trade balance, employment change and final inflation; Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment index; Italy industrial output; Sweden inflation rate; and Turkey Q1 GDP growth.

The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected. Analysts are also eyeing the publication of Japan's machinery orders. Meanwhile, China is set to publish figures for industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and house prices; and Australia is releasing NAB Business Confidence, Westpac Consumer Confidence and employment figures.

Other important releases include: India industrial production, inflation, wholesale prices, trade balance and current account; Indonesia foreign trade; Canada house prices; Brazil retail trade; and Russia interest rate decision.



Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
6/8/2018 3:17:16 PM



 


Friday June 08 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:00 AM
PH
Balance of Trade APR $-3615M $-2532M ®
03:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY MAY 12.6% 12.7% ®
03:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY MAY 26% 21.5%
03:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade MAY $24.92B $28.38B ®
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM APR -1% 1%
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade APR €20.4B €24.7B ®
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM APR -0.5% -0.4%
07:15 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
08:30 AM
GB
Consumer Inflation Expectations Q2 2.9% 2.9%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 2.86% 2.76%
12:00 PM
EU
EU Barnier Speech
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts MAY 195.6K 216.8K ®
12:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate MAY 5.8% 5.8%
12:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate MAY 65.3% 65.4%
12:30 PM
CA
Employment Change MAY -7.5K -1.1K
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JUN 53.9 53.6
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM APR 0.1% 0.2%
CA
G7 Summit
Saturday June 09 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 1.8% 1.8%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY MAY 4.1% 3.4%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM MAY -0.2% -0.2%
02:00 PM
RU
Balance of Trade APR $15.32B $15B
CA
G7 Summit
Sunday June 10 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM APR 10.1% -3.9%
Monday June 11 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 7.4% 7.3%
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1 2% 1.7% ®
08:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM APR -1.2% 1.2%
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY APR 1.8% 2.9%
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM APR -0.8% 0.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production MoM APR -1.4% -0.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY APR -3.3% -4.9%
08:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY APR 1.4% 2.9%
08:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade APR £-5.28B £-3.22B ®
11:50 PM
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q2 -3.2 2.9
Tuesday June 12 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence MAY 6 11 ®
01:30 AM
AU
Home Loans MoM APR -1.4% -2.3% ®
01:30 AM
AU
Investment Lending for Homes APR -0.9% -9%
08:30 AM
GB
Employment Change MAR 146K 197K
08:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change MAY -7.7K 28.2K ®
08:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate APR 4.2% 4.2%
08:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus APR 2.5% 2.6%
09:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN -12.6 2.4
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN -16.1 -8.2
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Current Conditions JUN 80.6 87.4
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY APR 5.2% 4.7% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY APR 4.9% 4.6% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 4.87% 4.58%
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY 2.2% 2.1%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 2.8% 2.5%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.2% 0.2%
05:00 PM
US
30-Year Bond Auction 3.100% 3.130%
06:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement MAY $-147B $214B
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 8/JUN -0.73M -2.028M
US
US-North Korea Summit
SA
OPEC Monthly Report
Wednesday June 13 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change JUN 0.3% -0.6%
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JUN 102.2 101.8
03:30 AM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
07:15 AM
CH
Industrial Production YoY Q1 9% 9.9% ®
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY 2.1% 2.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 2.4% 2.4%
09:00 AM
EA
Employment Change YoY Q1 1.4% 1.6%
09:00 AM
EA
Employment Change QoQ Q1 0.4% 0.3%
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY APR 1.7% 3.2% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM APR -0.9% 0.6% ®
10:30 AM
ZA
Business Confidence Q2 39 45
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM APR 1% 1.1% ®
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales YoY APR 0.6% 8% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Current Account Q1 $-13.0B $-13.5B
12:30 PM
US
PPI MoM MAY 0.5% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Core PPI MoM MAY 0.3% 0.2%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 08/JUN -2.271M 4.603M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 08/JUN -4.143M 2.072M
05:00 PM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 11.61% 12.48%
06:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 2% 1.75%
06:00 PM
US
FOMC Economic Projections
06:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
Thursday June 14 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
AU
Unemployment Rate MAY 5.4% 5.6%
01:30 AM
AU
Employment Change MAY 12K 18.4K ®
01:30 AM
AU
Full Time Employment Chg MAY -20.6K 28.0K ®
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY MAY 6.8% 7%
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY MAY 6.1% 7%
02:00 AM
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY MAY 1.3% 0.1%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY MAY 8.5% 9.4%
04:30 AM
NL
Balance of Trade APR €3.84B €5.72B ®
06:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY 2.2% 1.6%
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Inflation YoY MAY 4.43% 3.18%
07:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY MAY 2.1% 1.9%
07:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.2% 0.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM MAY 1.3% 1.8% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY MAY 3.9% 1.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM MAY 1.3% 1.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY MAY 4.4% 1.4% ®
11:45 AM
EA
Deposit Facility Rate -0.4% -0.4%
11:45 AM
EA
ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.0% 0.0%
11:45 AM
EA
Marginal Lending Rate 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY APR 1.6% 2.4%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM APR 0% 0%
12:30 PM
EA
ECB Press Conference
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM MAY 0.6% 0.6%
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM MAY 0.8% 0.4% ®
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM MAY 0.9% 0.4% ®
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM MAY 0.6% 0.6%