Week Ahead


Next week, the most important data for the US include the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth, durable goods orders, new and existing home sales, and flash Markit PMIs. Elsewhere, the ECB and the Bank of Japan will provide an update on their monetary policy. Investors will also be looking for updated UK GDP growth, unemployment and wage growth; the Eurozone flash PMIs and consumer sentiment; Germany business and investor morale; and Japan inflation, trade balance and manufacturing PMI.

In the US, the most important releases will be the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth, durable goods orders, new and existing home sales, and flash Markit PMIs. Other important data include: Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index; Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index; CB leading index; FHFA house prices; and advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories.

In the UK, investors will be closely watching the preliminary estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017, unemployment rate and wage growth, CBI factory orders and distributive trades, public finances and BBA mortgage approvals. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes. Regarding economic data, important releases include flash Markit PMIs and consumer sentiment for the Eurozone, Germany and France; business and investor morale for Germany; business confidence for France; and unemployment rate for Spain.

In Japan, the BoJ will be deciding on monetary policy, with no changes expected, and will publish its quarterly outlook report and meeting minutes. The country's inflation, trade balance and Nikkei manufacturing PMI will also be watched. Meanwhile, China will release figures for industrial profits, and in Australia the Westpac leading index will be in the spotlight.

Other important releases include: Canada inflation and retail trade; South Korea GDP growth and consumer confidence; the Philippines GDP growth; New Zealand inflation rate; Mexico unemployment and trade balance; Russia industrial output and unemployment rate; and South Africa inflation.



Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/19/2018 5:05:22 PM



 


Friday January 19 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
07:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM DEC 0.2% 0.1%
09:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
09:00 AM
ES
Balance of Trade NOV €-1.62B €-2.51B
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM DEC -1.6% 1.1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY DEC 1.3% 1.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM DEC -1.5% 1% ®
09:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY DEC 1.4% 1.5% ®
01:30 PM
BR
Business Confidence JAN 59 58.3
01:30 PM
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM NOV 3.4% -0.6% ®
03:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JAN 94.4 95.9
06:00 PM
US
Fed Quarles Speech
Monday January 22 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 AM
TH
Balance of Trade DEC $-0.28B $1.76B
05:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence JAN 24 25
01:30 PM
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM NOV 0.7% 1.6% ®
01:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index DEC 0.27 0.11 ®
02:00 PM
MX
Unemployment Rate DEC 3.1% 3.4%
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Tuesday January 23 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:00 AM
PH
GDP Growth Rate 2017 2017 6.7% 6.9%
02:00 AM
PH
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 6.6% 7% ®
02:00 AM
PH
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4 1.5% 1.7% ®
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
03:00 AM
JP
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report
04:30 AM
JP
All Industry Activity Index MoM NOV 1.0% 0.3%
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence JAN 72.3 65.1
10:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JAN 31.8 29
10:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JAN 20.4 17.4
10:00 AM
DE
ZEW Current Conditions JAN 95.2 89.3
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Business Optimism Index Q1 13 -11
11:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders JAN 14 17
03:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash JAN 1.3 0.5
09:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 19/JAN 4.755M -5.121M
11:30 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
11:50 PM
JP
Imports YoY DEC 14.9% 17.2%
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade DEC ¥359B ¥112B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY DEC 9.3% 16.2%
EA
Ecofin Meeting
CH
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Wednesday January 24 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:00 AM
MY
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 3.5% 3.4%
08:00 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 58.1 58.8
08:00 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 59.3 59.1
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 4.7% 4.6%
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 61.2 63.3
08:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 57.0 55.8
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 59.6 60.6
09:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 57.6 56.6
09:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus NOV 2.5% 2.5%
09:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change DEC 8.6K 12.2K ®
09:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate NOV 4.3% 4.3%
02:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash JAN 53.3 53.7
02:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JAN 55.5 55.1
02:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash JAN 53.8 54.1
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales DEC 5.57M 5.78M ®
03:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM DEC -3.6% 5.1% ®
03:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 19/JAN 3.098M 3.62M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 19/JAN -1.071M -6.861M
05:00 PM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims DEC -2.7K -29.5K
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q4 3% 3.8%
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4 -0.2% 1.5%
CH
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Thursday January 25 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
07:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence FEB 11.0 10.8
08:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Rate Q4 16.55% 16.39% ®
09:00 AM
DE
IFO Business Climate JAN 117.6 117.2
09:00 AM
DE
IFO Current Conditions JAN 127.7 125.5 ®
09:00 AM
DE
IFO Expectations JAN 108.4 109.4 ®
09:00 AM
NO
Norges Bank Interest Rate Decison 0.5% 0.5%
09:30 AM
GB
BBA Mortgage Approvals DEC 36.115K 39.007K ®
11:30 AM
TR
Business Confidence JAN 108.3 103.3
11:30 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization JAN 78.2% 79%
12:45 PM
EA
Deposit Facility Rate -0.4% -0.4%
12:45 PM
EA
ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate DEC 5.1% 5.1%
01:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.2% 1.6% ®
01:30 PM
EA
ECB Press Conference
03:00 PM
US
New Home Sales DEC 0.625M 0.689M ®
03:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM DEC -9.3% 15% ®
04:00 PM
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index JAN 16 13 ®
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence JAN 110 111
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1% 0.6%
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate MoM DEC 0.2% 0.7%
11:30 PM
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 0.9% 0.9%
11:30 PM
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY JAN 0.7% 0.8%
11:30 PM
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY JAN 1.3% 1%
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY DEC 0.3% 0.3%
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
CH
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Friday January 26 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
07:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence JAN 113 112
07:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence JAN 104 105
09:30 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7%
09:30 AM
GB
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q4 0.5% 0.4%
01:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM DEC -0.4% 0.3%
01:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.9% 2.1%
01:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC 1.2% 1.3%
01:30 PM
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q4 1.9% 1.3%
01:30 PM
US
PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q4 2.8% 1.5%
01:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4 2.6% 3.2%
01:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM DEC 2.9% 1.7% ®