US GDP Growth Revised up to 3.6% in Q3


Real gross domestic product in the United States increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the increase in private inventory investment was larger than previously estimated.


The GDP estimate released on December 5th is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 7.7 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.  Services was unchanged in the third quarter; in the second quarter, services increased 1.2 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent in the second. Nonresidential structures increased 13.8 percent, compared with an increase of 17.6 percent. Equipment was unchanged in the third quarter; in the second quarter, equipment increased 3.3 percent. Intellectual property products increased 1.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 13.0 percent, compared with an increase of 14.2 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 3.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.6 percent in the second.  National defense decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.  Nondefense decreased 3.1 percent, the same decrease as in the second quarter.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 1.68 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.41 percentage point to the second-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $116.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $56.6 billion in the second quarter and $42.2 billion in the first.

US GDP Growth Revised up to 3.6% in Q3


Bureau of Economic Analysis | anna@tradingeconomics.com
12/5/2013 1:39:17 PM