Italy Inflation Rate Quickens to Over 1-1/2-Year High of 1.7%


The annual inflation rate in Italy is expected to increase to 1.7 percent in November of 2018 from 1.6 percent in the previous month, matching market expectations. It is the highest inflation rate since April 2016, as rising prices of food must offset slowing cost of non-regulated energy products.

Year-on-year, inflation is expected to quicken for food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.1 percent vs 0.7 percent in October), with contributions of both processed food (1.3 percent vs 1.0 percent) and unprocessed food (1.1 percent vs 0.8 percent). Additional upward pressure must come from prices of: restaurants & hotels (1.5 percent vs 1.2 percent); furnishings (0.3 percent vs 0.1 percent) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (3.5 percent vs 3.2 percent).

On the other hand, prices must ease slightly for housing & utilities (4.8 percent vs 4.9 percent), driven by slowing prices of non-regulated energy products (7.8 percent vs 9.5 percent) while those of regulated energy products should remain stable (at 10.7 percent); and transport (3.5 percent vs 3.9 percent), despite a slight increase in prices of services related to transport (2.0 percent vs 1.8 percent). In addition, cost should rise slightly less for miscellaneous goods & services (2.5 percent vs 2.6 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, should went up to 0.9 percent from 0.7 percent in October, hitting its highest level since June 2017. Excluding only energy, the inflation is set to advance to 0.9 percent from 0.8 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should drop 0.1 percent, after being unchanged in October, and compared with market expectations of a larger decrease of 0.3 percent.

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.7 percent from the previous year (the same as in October); and to decrease by 0.2 percent month-over-month (0.2 percent in October).

Italy Inflation Rate Quickens to Over 1-1/2-Year High of 1.7%


Istat | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
11/30/2018 10:58:44 AM