US Factory Activity Shrinks for 3rd Month: ISM


The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 48.3 in October 2019 from a decade-low of 47.8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 48.9. The latest reading pointed to the third straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The production index fell 1.1 points from a month earlier to 46.2 and the supplier deliveries index declined 1.6 points to 49.5. Also, the price deflation deepened (-4.2 points to 45.5).

Meanwhile, the gauge for new orders rose 1.8 points to 49.1 and the employment index increased 1.4 points to 47.7.

“Comments from the panel reflect an improvement from the prior month, but sentiment remains more cautious than optimistic. October was the third consecutive month of PMI® contraction, at a slower rate compared to September. Demand contracted, with the New Orders Index contracting marginally, the Customers’ Inventories Index moving into ‘about right’ territory and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the sixth straight month (and at a faster rate). The New Export Orders Index surged into expansion territory, likely contributing to the slowing contraction of the New Orders Index. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contracted, due primarily to lack of demand, but contributed positively (a combined +0.3-percentage point increase) to the PMI® calculation. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were again lower in October, due primarily to supplier delivery contraction offset by improvements in inventories. This resulted in a combined 0.4-percentage point net improvement in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes. Imports contraction quickened. Overall, inputs indicate (1) supply chains are meeting demand and (2) companies are more confident that materials received will be consumed in a reasonable time period. Prices decreased for the fifth consecutive month, at a faster rate.”

“Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue. Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the strongest industry sector and Transportation Equipment the weakest sector. Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near-term growth,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in October: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 12 industries reporting contraction in October — in the following order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products.

US Factory Activity Shrinks for 3rd Month: ISM


ISM | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/1/2019 2:16:27 PM