China Recovery Quickens as Production, Lending Climb


China’s industrial production rose more than forecast in August, lending unexpectedly climbed and retail sales advanced, indicating growth in the world’s third- biggest economy is likely to accelerate.

Output at the nation’s factories gained 12.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since August 2008, the statistics bureau said. Local-currency new loans were 410.4 billion yuan ($60 billion), up from 355.9 billion yuan in July, the central bank reported.

Premier Wen Jiabao pledged yesterday to sustain stimulus measures to secure the recovery, saying the rebound is unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid.” Speaking at a conference in Dalian, northern China, he said we cannot and will not change the direction of our policies when the conditions aren’t appropriate.”

Retail sales climbed 15.4 percent in August from a year before, the most for the year after accounting for seasonal distortions caused by the lunar new year holiday, statistics bureau data showed.
Regional Impact

In China, the quickening expansion follows a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, record lending and a rebound in property investment and sales that have countered a slump in the nation’s exports. Trade data today showed shipments abroad fell a more- than-estimated 23.4 percent in August from a year earlier, the biggest drop in three months. Exports rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4 percent from July.

Surging auto sales are aiding the nation’s recovery. Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest carmaker, said yesterday that it will raise annual production capacity at its Chinese venture next year to 600,000 vehicles from 500,000. General Motors Co., the biggest overseas automaker in China, says the nation’s vehicle sales may reach 12 million this year, surpassing the U.S. as the world’s No. 1 market.

A rebound in the property market and business investment has added to signs that the recovery is maintaining momentum.

Urban fixed-asset investment for the eight months to Aug. 31 climbed 33 percent, the statistics bureau said. That was more than a 32.9 percent gain through July and the 32.7 percent median estimate in the survey of economists. For August alone, the gain was 33.6 percent.

Investment in real-estate development grew 14.7 percent in the first eight months after an 11.6 percent gain in the first seven months, the statistics bureau said yesterday. House prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, the fastest gain in 11 months.

New loans of more than one year increased in August from the previous month and discounted bills fell, indicating more money flowing to projects that are driving growth, said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong.


TradingEconomics.com, Bloomberg
9/11/2009 9:19:44 AM