Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing inflation rate, retail sales, Michigan’s consumer sentiment and JOLTs job openings. Elsewhere, the ECB will probably unveil its stimulus package on Thursday. Other important releases include: UK monthly GDP, trade balance, jobless rate and wage data; Eurozone industrial production and trade balance; China foreign trade and consumer and producer prices; Japan final Q2 GDP growth and machinery orders; Australia consumer and business morale; and India inflation and industrial output. Central banks in Turkey, Poland and Malaysia will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the US the consumer price inflation rate will probably remain unchanged at 1.8 percent in August; while the core rate should pick up to 2.3 percent, the highest in a year. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment should point to an improvement in morale during September, after hitting a near three-year low last month; while retail sales are seen rising at a slower pace in August, after posting the biggest gain in four months in July. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices; JOLTs job openings; business inventories; the government's budget statement; and the final reading of wholesale inventories. 

In the UK investors will turn their attention monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output, trade balance and unemployment data. The jobless rate is anticipated to hold steady at a four-month high and wages are likely to continue to rise at the fastest pace in 11 years, while GDP is seen expanding during July despite manufacturing weakness. 

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will probably unveil its stimulus package on Thursday, which most likely include a 10bps cut in its deposit facility rate. On the economic data front, important releases include: the Eurozone industrial production and trade balance; Germany foreign trade and wholesale prices; France, Italy and Spain industrial output; Ireland Q2 GDP growth and consumer prices; Sweden inflation rate; and Switzerland unemployment rate. Also, central banks in Turkey and Poland will be deciding on monetary policy

All eyes are on China's trade balance, with markets expecting a 2 percent rise in exports and a 6 percent fall in imports amid ongoing trade tariff war with the US. The country will also be publishing foreign direct investment and consumer and producer prices. Inflation will probably slow to a four-month low, while producer prices should fall further into deflationary territory. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on the final estimate of Q2 GDP growth, with forecasts pointing to a downward revision to the preliminary reading. Other key data include current account and machinery orders. Australia will be releasing NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer sentiment and home loans; while India will be providing updated data for consumer inflation and industrial output. 

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand manufacturing sales and business NZ PMI; South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore unemployment rates; and the Philippines trade balance. The Central Bank of Malaysia is seen holding interest rates at current levels.

Investors will also react to OPEC's monthly report.

Week Ahead

Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
9/7/2019 10:40:14 AM