U.S. Economy Grew Faster Than Expected


The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than previously estimated in the second quarter, helped by surging exports and a smaller decline in inventories.

The 3.3 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product from April through June was higher than forecast and compares with an advance estimate of 1.9 percent issued last month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The economy grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter.

Record exports and the temporary stimulus from the tax rebates prevented the economy from stalling as housing slumped and companies cut expenditures. Consumer spending is now waning and slower growth abroad dims the outlook for foreign sales, signaling last quarter will be the year's highpoint.

The Labor Department said separately that initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 425,000 last week, matching economists' forecasts, from 435,000 the previous week. The level remains well above the 321,000 average of last year, and continues to indicate a weakening job market.

The smallest trade deficit in eight years was the biggest contributor to growth. The trade gap narrowed to a $376.6 billion annual pace and added 3.1 percentage points to growth, the most since 1980. Excluding trade, the economy would have expanded at a 0.2 percent pace after growing 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year.

The boost from trade may wane in the rest of the year as growth among some of the U.S.'s biggest trading partners slows. Europe and Japan both shrank last quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, grew at a revised 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, compared with the 1.5 percent estimated last month and 0.9 percent for the first three months of the year.

The longest expansion in consumer spending on record will probably end this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month. Retail sales fell in July for the first time in five months, led by a slump in auto purchases, according to Commerce data.

A weakening labor market is one reason consumer spending is likely to slow after the government sent out about $92 billion in tax rebate checks. The U.S. has lost 463,000 jobs so far this year and wages haven't kept up with inflation, according to Labor Department data.

Smaller increases in paychecks are another reason Americans are likely to cut back. Wages and salaries increased by $52.5 billion in the first three months of the year, $20.2 billion less than previously estimated, according to today's revised estimates.

The reduction caused total personal income to grow at a 3 percent annual pace in the first quarter, compared with a previous estimate of 3.7 percent.

Today's revisions showed housing continued to slump and companies invested less in new equipment. Residential construction decreased at a 15.7 percent pace, more than previously estimated.

The slide in residential construction has continued this quarter. Housing starts last month fell 11 percent and building permits also declined, the government said Aug. 19.


TradingEconomics.com, Bloomberg
8/28/2008 6:03:31 AM