Week Ahead


Next week the US will be publishing inflation rate, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and flash Michigan's consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK unemployment, wage growth, inflation and retail sales; Eurozone trade balance and industrial production; Germany Q2 GDP figures; China industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and house price index; Japan machinery orders and corporate goods prices; and Australia consumer and business morale, wage price index and employment figures.

In the US the highly anticipated consumer price index report for July will probably show a pick up in inflation rate from June's four-month low; while the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment should point to a deterioration in morale during August. In addition, retail sales are expected to rise at a slower pace in July; while industrial output is set to grow slightly, after being unchanged in June. Other notable publications are building permits and housing starts, Q2 nonfarm productivity, foreign trade prices, business inventories, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, overall capital flows and the government's budget statement.

Other key publications for America comprise Canada ADP Employment Change and Brazil economic activity. Meantime, the central bank of Mexico will meet to decide monetary policy.

In the UK investors will turn their attention to unemployment and wages data, alongside inflation and retail trade. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at its lowest level since 1974 and wages are set to post its biggest gain since June 2008.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone will publish the second estimate of second-quarter GDP growth while Germany, the Netherlands and Poland are set to publish their flash estimates. The bloc’s largest economy is seen contracting in the three months to June, hurt by ongoing trade tensions and a fragile manufacturing sector. Investors will also keep an eye on Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, which is likely to plunge to its lowest since December 2011. Other key economic data includes: the Eurozone trade balance and industrial production; France jobless data; Sweden inflation rate; and Turkey industrial output and unemployment rate. The Norges Bank will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday.

In China industrial output and retail trade are seen rising at a softer pace in July while fixed asset investment growth should remain unchanged. The country's house price index will also be keenly watched. Meanwhile in Japan, machinery orders are set to decline for the second straight month in June, while corporate goods prices likely fell 0.5 percent from a year earlier in July. In Australia investors will be waiting for consumer and business morale, wage price index and employment figures.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, key data include: India foreign trade, consumer and wholesale prices; New Zealand Business NZ PMI; South Korea unemployment rate; Malaysia Q2 GDP growth and inflation rate; and Indonesia trade balance.

Market players will also react to next week’s OPEC monthly report.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
8/9/2019 6:45:40 PM