What to Expect This Week?

This week the market will be focus on inflation figures. Consumer prices are likely to increase in many countries but may be close to peaking since energy prices are significantly lower than last month.

In the United States, headline inflation is likely to accelerate above 5% on a y-o-y basis. Furthermore, retail sales may contract in July due to a sharp decline in car sales. We also expect the U.S. trade balance to show a bigger deficit in June as petroleum prices raised nominal imports. In Canada, trade surplus is likely to shrink due to lower demand for commodities. In the Euro Area, the Q2 GDP flash estimate is likely to confirm a slowdown in the growth across all countries in the EU. In addition, the final HICP estimate could show that inflation increased to 4.1% in July. In the United Kingdom, where utility bills along with food and furniture prices increased in July, inflation is likely to be hot. In Japan, preliminary Q2 GDP report is expected to confirm the contracting of the world’s second largest economy due to slowing external demand and surging commodity prices. Finally, CPI inflation in China may fell further in July, creating more room for the government to relax its price control measures.

8/9/2008 4:40:11 PM