U.S. Inflation Climb by the Most Since 2005


Prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped in June by the most since 2005 on spiraling costs for fuel and food, intensifying the pressure on households struggling with falling home prices and the credit crunch.

The cost of living soared 1.1 percent, more than forecast, after a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices climbed 0.3 percent, also more than anticipated.

The figures underscore why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said inflation risks had ``intensified.'' The surge in energy costs has also trimmed consumer and business spending, hurting growth and making it less likely policy makers will boost interest rates to stem even bigger price increases.

Treasuries dropped after the report, with yields on benchmark 10-year notes rising to 3.87 percent at 8:37 a.m. in New York, from 3.82 percent late yesterday.

Consumer prices were forecast to rise 0.7 percent, according to the median forecast of 79 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 1.1 percent. Costs excluding food and energy were forecast to rise 0.2 percent, the survey showed.

Prices increased 5 percent in the 12 months to June, the most since May 1991. They were forecast to climb 4.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the survey median. The core rate increased 2.4 percent from June 2007, also more than forecast.

Energy expenses jumped 6.6 percent, the biggest gain since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in September 2005. Gasoline prices soared 10.1 and fuel oil jumped 10.4 percent.

The cost of fuel will continue stoking price pressures. Crude oil futures reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and have risen almost 90 percent in the past year. Regular gasoline, which topped $4 a gallon for the first time in June, kept rising this month, AAA figures show.

The consumer price index is Labor's broadest gauge of costs. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets.

Wholesale prices rose 1.8 percent in June, the most in seven months, the Labor Department reported yesterday. From a year ago, prices climbed 9.2 percent, the biggest surge since 1981.

Food prices, which account for about a fifth of the CPI, increased 0.8 percent, driven by the biggest gain in the cost of vegetables in seven years.

The report showed that food and fuel weren't the only items on the rise. Costs for airline fares jumped 4.5 percent, the most since 2000. Prices for all commodities increased 1.9 percent, the biggest gain since records began in 1956.

Rents which, make up almost 40 percent of the core CPI, also accelerated. A category designed to track rental prices rose 0.3 percent after a 0.1 percent gain in May.

Today's figures also showed wages decreased 0.9 percent in June after adjusting for inflation, the biggest drop since August 1984, and were down 2.4 percent over the last 12 months. The drop in buying power is one reason economists forecast consumer spending will slow.

Americans trimmed purchases of automobiles, furniture and restaurant meals last month as the cost of gasoline soared, a Commerce Department report showed yesterday. Retail sales rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast, a sign the boost from the tax rebate checks is already fading.

Bernanke, testifying before Congress yesterday as part of his semi-annual report on the economy, cited ``significant downside risks to the outlook for growth'' in addition to the heightened threat of inflation.

Companies, unable to fully recover ballooning raw-material costs by raising prices, have cut staff and reduced equipment purchases as profits shrink.

The consumer-price and wholesale-price reports reflect differences in timing. In calculating wholesale prices, the government asks survey participants to report costs as of the Tuesday of the week that includes the 13th. Consumer prices are based on average costs over the entire month.


TradingEconomics.com, Bloomberg
7/16/2008 6:36:50 AM