US GDP Growth Revised Down to 1.8% in Q1


United States real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. While personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment increased; federal, state and local government spending, and exports decreased.


The GDP estimate released on June 26th is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.  With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was less than previously estimated, and exports and imports are now estimated to have declined.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 7.6 percent, compared with an increase of 13.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 0.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 13.2 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 8.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 16.7 percent. Equipment and software increased 4.1 percent, compared with an increase of 11.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 14.0 percent, compared with an increase of 17.6 percent.

Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 4.2 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 8.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.8 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 12.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 22.1 percent.  Nondefense decreased 2.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 2.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.57 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 1.52 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $36.7 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $13.3 billion in the fourth quarter and $60.3 billion in the third.

US GDP Growth Revised Down to 1.8% in Q1


Bureau of Economic Analysis, anna@tradingeconomics.com
6/26/2013 1:45:39 PM