India Holds Policy Rate Unchanged at 6.5%



The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at a five-year low of 6.5 percent during the meeting held on June 7th, as expected. While awaiting further data to assess the impact of seasonal rainfall and some external risks, policymakers said they would remain accommodative.

The central bank also decided to keep the cash reserve at 4.0 percent, to provide liquidity as required but progressively lower the average ex ante liquidity deficit in the system from one percent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) to a position closer to neutrality.

Excerpts from the statement by Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor:

In India, inflation surprise in the April reading makes the future trajectory of inflation somewhat more uncertain. Incoming data since April show a sharper-than-anticipated upsurge in inflationary pressures emanating from a number of food items (beyond seasonal effects), as well as a reversal in commodity prices. A strong monsoon, continued astute food management, as well as steady expansion in supply capacity, especially in services, could help offset these upward pressures. Given the uncertainties, the Reserve Bank will stay on hold, but the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative. The Reserve Bank will monitor macroeconomic and financial developments for any further scope for policy action.

Domestic conditions for growth are improving gradually, mainly driven by consumption demand, which is expected to strengthen with a normal monsoon and the implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission award. Higher public sector capital expenditure, led by roads and railways, should crowd in private investment, offsetting somewhat the subdued appetite for fresh private investment due to financial stress. Yet, business confidence will be restrained to an extent on account of unrelenting global factors. On a reassessment of balance of risks, therefore, the GVA growth projection for 2016-17 has been retained at 7.6 per cent with risks evenly balanced.

More monetary transmission to support the revival of growth continues to be critical. The government’s reform measures on small savings rates combined with the Reserve Bank’s refinements in the liquidity management framework should help the transmission of past policy rate reductions into lending rates of banks. The Reserve Bank will shortly review the implementation of the Marginal Cost Lending Rate framework by banks. Timely capital infusions into constrained public sector banks will also aid credit flow.


India Holds Policy Rate Unchanged at 6.5%


RBI l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
6/7/2016 7:23:58 AM