Week Ahead


Next week minutes from the Fed, RBA and ECB policy meetings will be keenly watched, alongside US durable goods orders, housing data and flash Markit PMIs; UK inflation and retail trade; Eurozone flash consumer confidence and Markit PMIs; Germany business morale; Japan Q1 GDP growth, trade balance, inflation, machinery orders and Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. Investors will also react to European parliamentary elections, as well as Indian general election results.

In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. Regarding the economic calendar, the country is scheduled to release its durable goods orders report for April, which will probably show a slump in demand following its biggest rise in seven months. In addition, flash Markit PMIs are likely to point to a slight acceleration in private sector growth during May, while housing data is set to paint a mixed picture: existing home sales should increase in April, after falling by the most since 2015; while new home sales are seen dropping from one-and-a-half-year high. Other notable publications are Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index.

Other key data for America include: Canada retail sales; Brazil business confidence; and Mexico final reading of Q1 GDP growth, as well as trade balance.

In the UK inflation figures from the ONS are expected to show an increase in consumer inflation rate to a five-month high while producer inflation is seen at three-month low. Also, retail trade in April is seen falling for the first time this year. CBI factory orders and public sector net borrowing will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts; while flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France are forecast point to further deterioration in their manufacturing sectors during May. Traders will also keep an eye on the Eurozone flash consumer confidence; Germany final reading of first-quarter GDP growth, alongside business survey and producer inflation; and Turkey industry and consumer morale.

In Japan, investors will be focusing on the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP growth, alongside foreign trade figures, inflation rate, machinery orders, flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and the final reading of March's industrial output. Data is expected to show the country's economy contracted in the first three months of this year, while exports are forecast to have declined 1.8 percent in April due to ongoing trade tensions. Also, machinery orders are seen falling in March and the core consumer price inflation is likely to pick up to 0.9 percent in April.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. The country will also be publishing Westpac leading index, Q1 construction work done and flash CommBank PMIs. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand trade figures and retail sales; Thailand Q1 GDP growth and trade balance; and Malaysia inflation rate.

On the political front, European parliamentary elections will be closely watched, as well as Indian general election results due on Thursday.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
5/18/2019 10:40:38 AM