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UK Inflation Rate Up to 3-Year High
Annual inflation rate in the UK increased to 2.5% in June of 2021 from 2.1% in May, above market forecasts of 2.2%. It is the highest inflation rate since August of 2018, with transport making the biggest upward impact (7.2%) while a low base effect from last year is also weighing. Also, prices for second-hand cars (5.6%), clothing and footwear (3%), eating and drinking out, and motor fuel (20.3%) rose in 2021 but mostly fell in 2020, resulting in the largest upward contributions to the change in the CPI which were partially offset by a large downward contribution from games, toys and hobbies (-0.9%), where prices fell this year but rose a year ago. Cost of food and non alcoholic beverages was down 0.6%. The BoE predicts inflation will exceed 3% although price pressures should be transitory.
Published on 2021-07-14

UK Inflation Rate Jumps to Near 2-Year High
The consumer price inflation rate in the UK climbed to 2.1 percent year-on-year in May 2021, from 1.5 percent in the previous month and comfortably above market expectations of 1.8 percent. It was the highest rate since July 2019, reflecting the ongoing economic recovery and re-opening efforts, as well as the low base year. Main upward pressure came from clothing; motor fuel; recreational goods, particularly games and recording media; and meals and drinks consumed out. On the other hand, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell for a seventh consecutive month, particularly for bread and cereals.
Published on 2021-06-16

UK Inflation Rate Highest in a Year
Annual inflation rate in the UK increased to 1.5% in April of 2021 from 0.7% in March, and compared to market forecasts of 1.4%. It is the highest reading since March of 2020, as the economy started to reopen after a nationwide coronavirus lockdown in the beginning of the year and as the cap on energy bills was lifted. From April 1st the price cap returned to pre-pandemic levels (up by £96 to £1,138), principally as a result of changes in wholesale energy prices. Rising household utility (2.4% vs -7.3% in March), clothing (0.5% vs -3.5%), and motor fuel prices (13.6% vs 3.5%) made the largest upward contributions which were partially offset by a large downward contribution from recreation and culture (0.7% vs 2.3%). Also, the temporary 5% VAT on hospitality, which will last until the end of September, helped to keep costs low. If taxes were at their normal levels, inflation would have risen to 3.2%, the highest rate for nine years.
Published on 2021-05-19

UK Inflation Rate Rises Less than Expected
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom edged up to 0.7 percent in March of 2021 from 0.4 percent in February and below market expectations of 0.8 percent. The biggest upward contribution came from rising prices for motor fuels (3.5 percent) which were partially offset by falls in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.4 percent), namely bread and cereals, and confectionery. Petrol prices stood at 123.7 pence per litre in March 2021, compared with 119.4 pence per litre in March 2020 and a recent low of 106.2 pence per litre in May 2020. The first stage of easing the nationwide coronavirus lockdown started in March but stores, pubs and restaurants opened in April only. British inflation is forecast to rise sharply in the coming months, due to an increase in regulated household energy bills in April, higher global oil prices and a low comparison base as demand sank last year due to the coronavirus.
Published on 2021-04-21

UK Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows to 0.4%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 0.4% in February of 2021 from 0.7% in January, compared to market forecasts of 0.8 percent. Main downward pressure came from a fall in prices for clothing and footwear (-5.7% vs -3.4% in January, the biggest annual decline since November 2009) and a slowdown in second-hand cars (3.5% vs 7.8%), and games, toys and hobbies (7.4% vs 8.4%). On the other hand, upward pressure was recorded for motor fuels, housing (1.8%, the same as in January) and household services overall. Core inflation rate also slowed to 0.9% from 1.4%. The Bank of England expect inflation to rise towards the BoE's 2% target in the first half of this year, mainly due to oil prices, regulated household energy prices and other one-off effects.
Published on 2021-03-24

UK Inflation Rate Inches Up to 0.7%
Annual inflation rate in the UK edged up to 0.7 percent in January of 2021 from 0.6 percent in December, slightly above market forecasts of 0.6 percent, as the country was under a coronavirus lockdown. Furniture and household goods (12 percent vs -0.7 percent); restaurants and hotels (1.1 percent vs 0.1 percent); and transport (2.1 percent vs 1.9 percent) had the largest upward contributions, while falling clothing and footwear prices (-3.4 percent vs -1.8 percent) had a downward effect. Meanwhile, prices of food fell at a slower pace (-0.7 percent vs -1.4 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, less than forecasts of a 0.4 percent drop.
Published on 2021-02-17

UK Inflation Rate Slightly Higher than Expected
The inflation rate in the UK edged up to 0.6% in December of 2020 from 0.3% in November and slightly above market forecasts of 0.5%, as some coronavirus restrictions were eased. Biggest upward contribution came from transport (1.9% vs 1%), namely air fares and second-hand cars; clothing and footwear (-1.8% vs -3.6%); recreation and culture (2.6% vs 1.9%); and alcohol and tobacco (3.6% vs 2%). In contrast, main downward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.4% vs -0.6%); furniture (-0.7% vs -0.3%); communication (2.6% vs 3.5%); and restaurants and hotels (0.1% vs 0.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.3%, above forecasts of 0.2%.
Published on 2021-01-20

UK Inflation Rate Slows More than Expected
Consumer prices in the UK edged up 0.3 percent year-on-year in November of 2020, below 0.7 percent in October and market forecasts of 0.6 percent. The largest downward contribution came from cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.6 percent) and clothing and footwear (-3.6 percent, the biggest drop since January of 2010 on increased discounting for the Black Friday) and housing and utilities (-1.4 percent). Such decreases were partially offset by upward contributions from games, toys and hobbies (5.4 percent), and accommodation services (1.1 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were down 0.1 percent, compared to market expectations of a 0.1 percent rise.
Published on 2020-12-16

UK Inflation Rate Up to 0.7%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom increased to 0.7% in October of 2020 from 0.5% in September, above forecasts of 0.6%. It is the highest reading in three months, amid a rebound in prices of clothing (0% vs -1.5% in September) ; food (0.6% vs -0.1%); and furniture, furnishings and carpets (0.1% vs -0.5%). Prices increased faster for transport (1.2% vs 0.9%; and miscellaneous goods and services (0.8% vs 0.7%) while cost of recreation and culture eased (2% vs 2.4%) and housing and utilities declined (-1.3% vs -0.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices stalled, following a 0.4% rise in September and compared to market expectations of a 0.1% drop.
Published on 2020-11-18

UK Inflation Rate Edges Up to 0.5%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom increased to 0.5% in September of 2020 from a near 5-year low of 0.2% in August, matching market expectations. The largest upward contribution came from cost of recreation and culture (2.4% vs 2.8% in August), transport (0.9% vs -1%), and restaurants and hotels (-0.7% vs -2.8%) after the end of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme. In contrast, smaller downward contributions from furniture, household equipment and maintenance (-0.5% vs 0.4%); games, toys and hobbies (-1.2% vs 3.8%); and food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.1% vs 0.4, the lowest rate since January of 2017). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.4%, reversing from a 0.4% fall in August. Still, the inflation rate remains well below the Bank of England's 2% target.
Published on 2020-10-21

UK Inflation Rate Lowest since 2015
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom slowed sharply to 0.2 percent in August of 2020 from 1 percent in July, compared to forecasts of a flat reading. It is the lowest reading since December of 2015, amid a big fall in prices in restaurants and cafes, arising from the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme (-2.8 percent vs +1.8 percent in July). Other downward contributions came from lower air fares (-20.6 percent vs -1.9 percent) and clothing prices (-1.6 percent vs a flat reading). The largest, partially offsetting, upward contributions came from games, toys and hobbies (3.8 percent vs 1.6 percent); accommodation services (-1.8 percent vs -3.8 percent); road transport services (9.8 percent vs 5 percent) and second-hand cars (5.2 percent vs 2.5 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4 percent, the biggest drop since January of 2019.
Published on 2020-09-16

UK Inflation Rate at 4-Month High
Annual inflation rate in the UK jumped to 1% in July of 2020 from 0.6% in June, beating market forecasts of 0.6%. It is the highest reading since March, as the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic have been eased. The largest contributions came clothing (-0.1% vs -2.2%), rising prices at the petrol pump (transportation prices were down 0.7% vs -1.6% in June), and furniture and household goods (0.8% vs -0.5%), namely single beds and bath sheets. In contrast, food inflation slowed (0.8% vs 1.1%), mainly due to fruit, vegetables (including potatoes and tubers), fish, meat, and milk, cheese and eggs. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.4%, after a 0.1% rise and beating forecasts of a 0.1% fall.
Published on 2020-08-19

UK Inflation Rate Beats Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom edged up to 0.6 percent in June of 2020 from a 4-year low of 0.5 percent in May and beating market forecasts of 0.4 percent. Main upward contributions came from cost of recreation and culture (2.6 percent), namely computer games and computer games consoles, with the coronavirus lockdown changing the timing of demand and availability of such products. The UK allowed non-essential shops to reopen on June 15th. Other upward pressure also came from cost of clothing and footwear (-2.2 percent), possibly reflecting how retailers cut prices earlier than usual this year to shift goods during the lockdown; and health (2.1 percent). The largest, partially offsetting, downward contribution came from cost of food (1 percent), namely vegetables. On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.1 percent after a flat reading in May. Annual core inflation which excludes cost of energy, food, alcoholic beverages increased to 1.4 percent from 1.2 percent.
Published on 2020-07-15

UK Inflation Rate Falls to 4-Year Low in May
Britain's consumer price inflation dropped to 0.5 percent year-on-year in May, from 0.8 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. That was the lowest rate since June 2016, as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand and oil prices. There was a sharp decline in prices for transport (-1.7 percent vs -1.0 percent) in particular motor fuels (-16.7 percent vs -12.2 percent) and a slowdown in cost for a variety of recreational and cultural goods (2.0 percent vs 2.6 percent), restaurants and hotels (2.0 percent vs 2.4 percent) and miscellaneous goods and services (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent). Additional downward pressure came from housing and utilities (-1.2 percent vs -1.1 percent) amid reduced household utility bills, and clothing and footwear (-3.1 percent vs -2.9 percent). At the same time, rising prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks resulted in a partially offsetting upward contribution to change (1.8 percent vs 1.3 percent).
Published on 2020-06-17

UK Inflation Rate Eases to 3-1/2-Year Low
Britain's consumer price inflation slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in April 2020, from 1.5% in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 0.9%. That was the lowest rate since August 2016, mainly due to falls in housing & utilities (-1.1% vs 1.7%), led by cost of regulated water supply, gas and electricity after the authorities introduced energy price caps. Other downward contribution came from cost of motor fuels with petrol prices falling by 10.4 pence per litre between March and April after international oil prices plunged to historical low levels. Transportation services also declined (-1% vs 1.3%) as the country imposed a coronavirus lockdown from March 23rd. In addition, inflation slowed for miscellaneous goods and services (1.3% vs 2.5%) and was steady for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 1.3%). The CPI including owner occupiers’ housing costs inflation rate was 0.9%n in April, down from 1.5% in March.
Published on 2020-05-20

UK Inflation Rate Edges Down to 1.5%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 1.5% in March of 2020 from 1.7% in February with the prices of motor fuels and clothing making the largest downward contribution. Petrol prices went down by 5.1 pence per litre between February and March, the largest monthly drop since December of 2018; and the cost of clothing and footwear declined 1.2% due to sales. Inflation also eased for recreation and culture (1.3% vs 1.4%), housing and utilities (1.7% vs 1.8% in February) and restaurants and hotels (2.1% vs 2.5%). On the other hand, rises in air fares produced the largest upward contribution to the CPI and the prices of food rose slightly faster (1.3% vs 1.2%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, after rising 0.4% in February and matching forecasts. The British economy was shut down on March 23rd due to the coronavirus pandemic so the effects of the disease on consumer inflation will be seen in the April report only.
Published on 2020-04-22

UK Inflation Rate Eases to 1.7% in February
The consumer price inflation in the UK edged down to 1.7 percent year-on-year in February 2020 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Prices increased at a softer pace for recreation & culture (1.4 percent vs 1.5 percent in January), housing & utilities (1.8 percent vs 2.0 percent), and food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.2 percent vs 1.4 percent). On the other hand, inflation was flat for transport (at 1.8 percent) and miscellaneous goods & services (at 2.4 percent), while picked up for restaurants & hotels (2.5 percent vs 2.2 percent). The core consumer price inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, increased to 1.7 percent, above market consensus of 1.5 percent.
Published on 2020-03-25

UK Inflation Rate Way Above Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom jumped to 1.8% in January of 2020 from 1.3% in December and above market expectations of 1.6%. It is the highest reading in six months, mainly boosted by prices of transport (1.8% vs 0.7% in December), namely airfares (0.9% vs -8.5%); fuels and lubricants (4.7% vs 1%, the biggest rise since November 2018); housing and utilities (2% vs 0.4%), namely electricity (8.6% vs 3.3%); restaurants and hotels (2.2% vs 1.6%); and miscellaneous goods and services (2.4% vs 2.2%). Also, prices rebounded for clothing and footwear (0.2% vs -0.8%). In contrast, inflation eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.4% vs 1.7%) and was steady for recreation and culture (1.5%). Core inflation which excludes energy, fuel, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 1.6% from 1.4% in December.
Published on 2020-02-19

UK Inflation Rate Drops Unexpectedly to 3-Year Low
The consumer price inflation in the UK slowed to 1.3 percent year-on-year in December 2019, the lowest reading since November 2016 and below market consensus of 1.5 percent, as prices rose at a softer pace for restaurants & hotels (1.6 percent vs 2.4 percent), transport (0.7 percent vs 0.9 percent), and food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.7 percent vs 2.1 percent). In addition, clothing & footwear prices dropped 0.8 percent, after being unchanged in November. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, fell to 1.4 percent, also the lowest in nearly three years and below forecasts of 1.7 percent.
Published on 2020-01-15

UK Inflation Rate Unchanged at 3-Year Low
The consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom held steady at 1.5 percent year-on-year in November 2019, the lowest level since November 2016, but slightly above market expectations of 1.4 percent. The consumer prices index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) increased 1.5 percent, the same as in the previous month. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held steady at 1.7 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, reversing a 0.2 percent decline in October and in line with market consensus.
Published on 2019-12-18