Italy April Inflation Rate Weaker than Expected


Italy's consumer price inflation is expected to fall to 0.5 percent year-on-year in April 2018, matching February's 14-month low and missing market expectations of 0.7 percent.

Prices of food are set to rise 1.6 percent in April, following a 0.5 percent gain in the previous month, boosted by higher prices of both processed (2.2 percent vs 1.2 percent) and unprocessed food products (0.7 percent vs -0.4 percent). Additional upward pressure should come from: tobacco (2.8 percent vs 2.2 percent). Meanwhile, energy inflation is expected to slow to 0.8 percent in April from 3 percent in March, due to a decline in non-regulated energy products prices (-1.1 percent vs 5 percent). Also, cost of services related to transport should fall 0.7 percent after a 2.5 percent advance in the previous month.

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is expected to fall to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in March. Excluding only energy, the inflation should remain unchanged at 0.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to increase by only 0.1 percent, after a 0.3 percent gain in March and missing consensus of 0.2 percent. An increase in prices of processed food products (1.1 percent), non-regulated energy goods (1.1 percent) and recreational, cultural and personal care (0.9 percent) should offset a decline in regulated energy prices (-5.4 percent).

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 0.6 percent from the previous year; and by 0.5 percent from the previous month.

Italy April Inflation Rate Weaker than Expected


Istat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/30/2018 9:36:08 AM