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US Inflation Rate Highest since 2018
The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 2.6% in March of 2021 from 1.7% in February, slightly above market forecasts of 2.5%. It is the highest reading since August of 2018 with main upward pressure coming from energy (13.2% vs 3.7% in February), namely gasoline (22.5% vs 1.6%), electricity (2.5% vs 2.3%) and utility gas service (9.8% vs 6.7%). Prices also accelerated for used cars and trucks (9.4% vs 9.3%), shelter (1.7% vs 1.5%) and new vehicles (1.5% vs 1.2%) while inflation slowed for medical care services (2.7% vs 3%) and food (3.5% vs 3.6%). Also, cost of apparel continued to fall (-2.5% vs -3.6%). The effects of the coronavirus pandemic are weighing on prices since in March 2020 many businesses closed and lockdowns were imposed, denting economic activity Also, a jump in commodities and material costs, coupled with supply constraints, are pushing producer prices up and some companies are passing those costs to clients.
Published on 2021-04-13

US Inflation Rate at 1-Year High
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 1.7% in February of 2021 from 1.4% in January, compared to market forecasts of 1.7%. It is the highest rate since February of 2020 with main upward pressure coming from energy cost (3.7% vs -3.6% in January), namely gasoline (1.6% vs -8.6%), electricity (2.3% vs 1.5%) and utility gas service (6.7% vs 4.3%). Prices of medical care services also increased slightly more (3% vs 2.9%). In contrast, prices slowed for food (3.6% vs 3.8%), used cars and trucks (9.3% vs 10%), shelter (1.5% vs 1.6%) and new vehicles (1.2% vs 1.4%) and cost of apparel fell more (-3.6% vs -2.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.4%, also in line with expectations as gasoline went up 6.4% and accounted for over half of the increase. Annual core inflation on the other hand, came in below forecasts at 1.3%. Fed Chair Powell has been reiterating the inflation could temporarily exceed 2% although upward price pressures are likely to be temporary.
Published on 2021-03-10

US Inflation Rate Slightly Lower than Expected
The annual inflation rate in the US was steady at 1.4% in January of 2021, the same as in December and slightly below market forecasts of 1.5%. Main upward pressure came from: food prices (3.8%), used cars and trucks (10%), utility gas service (4.3%), medical care services (2.9%), shelter (1.6%), electricity (1.5%) and new vehicles (1.4%). Meanwhile, apparel prices fell 2.5%. and energy cost went down 3.6% mainly due to gasoline (-8.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.3%, in line with forecasts and following a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in December driven by a 7.4% rise in gasoline cost. The indexes for electricity and natural gas declined, but the energy index rose 3.5%. The food prices rose slightly by 0.1% as an advance in the index for food away from home more than offset a decline in the index for food at home.
Published on 2021-02-10

US Inflation Rate Above Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 1.4% in December of 2020, from 1.2 percent in November and slightly higher than market forecasts of 1.3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.4%, higher than 0.2% in November and in line with expectations, mainly driven by an 8.4% increase in the gasoline index, which accounted for more than 60% of the overall rise. The other components of the energy index were mixed, resulting in an increase of 4.0 percent for the month. The food index rose in December, as both the food at home and the food away from home indexes increased 0.4%. The core index which excludes food and energy rose 0.1% on the month and 1.4% on the year.
Published on 2021-01-13

US Inflation Rate Slightly Above Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the US was unchanged at 1.2% in November of 2020, the same as in October and slightly higher than market forecasts of 1.1%. Prices increased faster for new vehicles (1.6% vs 1.5%) but slowed for food (3.7% vs 3.9%), shelter (1.9% vs 2%) and used cars and trucks (10.9% vs 11.5%). Also, cost of medical care commodities (-1.1% vs -0.8% in September) and energy (-9.4% vs -9.2%) declined further (-9.4% vs -9.2%) while deflation softened for transportation services (-3.4% vs -5.1%) and apparel (-5.2% vs -5.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.2%, higher than a flat reading in October and expectations of 0.1%. The core index which excludes food and energy rose 0.2% on the month and 1.6% on the year.
Published on 2020-12-10

US Inflation Rate Falls More than Expected
Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 1.2% in October of 2020 from 1.4% in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.3%. The rate remains well below 2.3% in February before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Cost of medical care commodities dropped (-0.8% vs 0.9% in September); and energy prices declined further (-9.2% vs -7.7%). Also, cost of transportation services continued to fall (-5.1%, the same as in August). On the other hand, inflation was steady for food (at 3.9%) and shelter (at 2%) while deflation for apparel softened (-5.5% vs -6%). In addition, prices advanced at a faster pace for cars and trucks (11.5% vs 10.3%) and new vehicles (1.5% vs 1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged, after increasing 0.2% in the prior month and compared with forecasts of a 0.1% gain. Annual core inflation unexpectedly slowed to 1.6% while the monthly index was down unchanged.
Published on 2020-11-12

US Inflation Rate at 6-Month High
Annual inflation rate in the US edged up to 1.4% in September of 2020 from 1.3% in August, in line with expectations and reaching the highest since March. Inflation has been rising consistently since hitting 0.1% in May, the lowest since September of 2015, due to the coronavirus crisis. Still, it remains well below 2.3% in February before the pandemic. Cost for used cars and trucks surged (10.3% vs 4% in August), prices for new vehicles (1% vs 0.7%), and medical care commodities (0.9% vs 0.8%) increased faster and energy cost dropped less (-7.7% vs -9%). On the other hand, inflation for food (3.9% vs 4.1%), shelter (2% vs 2.3%) and medical care commodities (0.9% vs 0.8%) slowed and the deflation deepened for apparel (-6% vs -5.9%) and transportation services (-5.1% vs -4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%, below 0.4% in August and also matching forecasts. Prices of used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and made the largest upward contribution.
Published on 2020-10-13

US Inflation Rate Rises More than Expected
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 1.3% in August of 2020 from 1% in July, beating market forecasts of 1.2%. It is the highest rate since March. Cost for used cars and trucks rebounded (4% vs -0.9% in July), prices for new vehicles increased faster (0.7% vs 0.5%), and energy cost dropped less (-9% vs -11.2%). At the same time, inflation for food (4.1%) and shelter (2.3%) was steady. In contrast, prices slowed for medical care commodities (0.8% vs 1.1%) and medical care services (5.3% vs 5.9%) and the deflation deepened for apparel (-5.9% vs -6.5%) and transportation services (-4% vs -3.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.4%, also above forecasts of 0.3%: a sharp rise in the used cars and trucks index was the largest factor, but the indexes for gasoline, shelter, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributed. Excluding food and energy, annual core inflation edged up to 1.7% from 1.6%.
Published on 2020-09-11

US Inflation Rate Beats Forecasts in July
The US consumer price inflation rate picked up to 1.0 percent year-on-year in July 2020, recovering further from May's four-and-a-half-year low and beating market expectations of 0.8 percent. Energy prices dropped 11.2 percent (vs -12.6 percent in June), as the declines in gasoline and fuel oil cost eased following the lifting of coronavirus-induced restrictions. At the same time, food prices rose 4.1 percent (vs 4.5 percent in June) boosted by cost for food away from home (3.4 percent vs 3.1 percent). Additional upward pressure came from new vehicles (0.5 percent vs -0.2 percent), medical care commodities (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent), shelter (2.3 percent vs 2.4 percent) and medical care services (5.9 percent vs 6.0 percent). However, deflation was recorded for used cars and trucks (-0.9 percent vs -2.8 percent), apparel (-6.5 percent vs -7.3 percent) and transportation services (-3.7 percent vs -7.0 percent).
Published on 2020-08-12

US Inflation Rate Highest in 3 Months
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 0.6% in June of 2020 from May's four-and-a-half-year low of 0.1% and matching market forecasts. It is the highest reading in three months as businesses reopened after the coronavirus lockdown. Food inflation accelerated to 4.5% (vs 4% in May), the strongest since December of 2011, with food at home prices jumping 5.6% (vs 4.8%. Prices also increased faster for medical care services (6% vs 5.9%). Moreover, smaller decreases were seen in gasoline cost (-23.4% vs -33.8%), apparel (-7.3% vs -7.9%) and transportation services (-7% vs -8.7%). In contrast, shelter cost rose slightly less (2.4% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, prices went up 0.6 percent, the most since August of 2012, with a 12.3 percent surge in gasoline prices accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Annual core inflation which excludes food and energy was unchanged at 1.2% and the monthly rate increased to 0.2%.
Published on 2020-07-14

US Inflation Rate Lowest since 2015
The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 0.1% in May of 2020 from 0.3% in April and below forecasts of 0.2%. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2015, mainly due to a 33.8% plunge in gasoline cost. Also, prices of apparel went down 7.9% and transportation services declined 8.7% as many stores remained closed and Americans were forced to stay at home due to coronavirus lockdown restrictions. On the other hand, food inflation accelerated to 4%, the highest since January of 2012, with food at home prices jumping 4.8%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were down 0.1% after falling 0.8% in April and compared to forecasts of a flat reading. Declines in the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, energy, and apparel more than offset increases in food and shelter indexes. Annual core inflation slowed to 1.2% while the monthly index was down 0.1%.
Published on 2020-06-10

US Inflation Rate Falls to 0.3%, Lowest since 2015
Annual inflation rate in the US eased to 0.3% in April of 2020 from 1.5% in March and below market expectations of 0.4%. It is the lowest inflation rate since October of 2015, mainly due to a 32% plunge in gasoline prices. In April, oil prices turned negative for the first time in history amid storage and oversupply concerns. Also, coronavirus lockdown restrictions led to a 5.7% drop in cost of apparel and a 5.5% fall in cost of transportation services. On the other hand, cost of food increased 3.5%, the highest rate since February of 2012. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.8%, the largest drop since December of 2008, mainly due to a 20.6% fall in gasoline prices although the indexes for apparel, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and lodging away from home all fell sharply as well. Excluding food and energy, core inflation eased to 1.4%, the lowest rate since April of 2011.
Published on 2020-05-12

US Inflation Rate Falls More than Expected
Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 1.5% in March of 2020 from 2.3% in February and slightly lower than market expectations of 1.6%. It is the lowest inflation rate since February of 2019, mainly due to a 10.2% slump in gasoline costs (5.2% in February) and a 1.6% drop in apparel prices (vs -0.9%). Prices of shelter also slowed (3% vs 3.3%) while food inflation edged up (1.9% vs 1.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4%, after a 0.1% gain in February and worse than expectations of a 0.3% decline. It is the largest monthly drop since January of 2015, mainly due to a 10.5% slump in gasoline prices while decreases in airline fares, lodging away from home, and apparel also contributing. In contrast, increases were seen in prices of food, medical care, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and education. Core consumer prices rose 2.1% year-on-year but fell 0.1% month-over-month, its first monthly decline since January of 2010.
Published on 2020-04-10

US Inflation Rate Above Forecasts at 2.3%
Annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in February of 2020 from 2.5% in January which was the highest rate since October of 2018. Figures came slightly higher than market expectations of 2.2%. Gasoline prices rose 5.2%, well below a 12.8% jump in January while inflation was steady for both shelter (3.3%) and food (1.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1%, the same as in January and compared to forecasts of a flat reading. Main upward pressure came from cost of shelter (0.3%) and food (0.4%), with the food at home index rising 0.5%, its largest monthly increase since May of 2014. Those rises more than offset a 2% drop in energy cost, namely gasoline (-3.4%) and fuel oil (-8.5%). Other increases were also seen for prices of apparel, personal care, used cars and trucks, education, and medical care while cost of recreation and airline fares declined over the month. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 2.4% over the year and 0.2% on a monthly basis.
Published on 2020-03-11

US Inflation Rate Highest since 2018
Annual inflation rate in the US climbed to 2.5% in January of 2020 from 2.3% in December and beating market forecasts of 2.4%. It is the highest rate since October of 2018, mainly boosted by a 12.8% jump in gasoline cost. Cost of shelter increased slightly more (3.3% vs 3.2%) while food inflation was steady at 1.8%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% percent in December and expectations of 0.2% as a 1.6% decline in gasoline prices was offset by higher cost of shelter (0.4%), food (0.2%) and medical care services (0.3%). Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose 2.3% year-over-year, the same as in December and 0.2% month-over-month, above 0.1% reported in the last month of 2019.
Published on 2020-02-13

US Inflation Rate Rises to 14-Month High
The US consumer price inflation rate climbed to 2.3 percent year-on-year in December 2019 from 2.1 percent in the previous month and in line with market consensus. That was the highest rate since October 2018, boosted by a sharp rebound in energy costs (3.4 percent vs -0.6 percent in November). Food inflation, however, eased to 1.8 percent from 2.0 percent. Additional price increases were recorded for medical care commodities, medical care services and shelter. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, was unchanged at 2.3 percent, also in line with market forecasts.
Published on 2020-01-14

US Inflation Rate Climbs to 1-Year High
The US annual inflation rate rose to 2.1 percent in November 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and above market consensus of 2.0 percent. That was the highest rate since November 2018, as food inflation was little-changed while energy prices dropped at a much slower pace. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, was unchanged at 2.3 percent, in line with market forecasts.
Published on 2019-12-11

US Inflation Rate Above Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 1.8 percent in October of 2019 from 1.7 percent in September and higher than market expectations of 1.7 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. The food index rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 4.2 percent over the last year despite increasing in October. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.4 percent, above a flat reading in September and forecasts of 0.3 percent. The energy index increased 2.7 percent in October after recent monthly declines and accounted for more than half of the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index.
Published on 2019-11-13

US Inflation Rate Holds Steady at 1.7%
The US annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7 percent in September 2019, slightly below market consensus of 1.8 percent, as a pick up in food inflation was offset by a further decline in energy prices.
Published on 2019-10-10

US Inflation Rate Falls Unexpectedly in August
The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.7 percent in August 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 1.8 percent, as food prices and a range of other goods continued to increase while energy deflation deepened sharply. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose to 2.4 percent in August, the highest in a year and above market consensus of 2.3 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.1 percent in August, after a 0.3 percent gain in July and in line with market forecasts.
Published on 2019-09-12