U.S. GDP revised up to 0.4%


Real gross domestic product in the United States increased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third.  Durable goods increased 13.6 percent, compared with an increase of 8.9 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent.  Services increased 0.6 percent, the same increase as in the third.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 13.2 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.8 percent in the third.  
 
Real exports of goods and services decreased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent in the third.  Real imports of goods and services decreased 4.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
 
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 14.8 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third.  National defense decreased 22.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent.  
 
The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.52 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change.  econd.

Bureau of Economic Analysis, anna@tradingeconomics.com
3/28/2013 12:40:15 PM