Nigerian Economy Contracts 1.3% in Q4


The GDP in Nigeria shrank 1.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 2.24 percent decline in the previous period. It was the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction as lower oil prices keep hurting the oil sector. Considering full 2016, the economy contracted 1.5 percent, following a 2.8 percent growth in 2015, the first annual contraction in 25 years.

The oil sector declined 12.38 percent year-on-year, following a 22.01 percent drop in the previous period and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of falls in the oil sector. The country produced 1.9 million barrels per day, down from 2.16 mbpd a year earlier, hurt by lower oil prices. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 7.15 percent of the GDP compared to 8.06 percent a year earlier.

The non-oil sector decreased slightly by 0.33 percent after being flat in the previous period (0.03 percent): production continued to fall for real estate (-9.27 percent from -7.37), manufacturing (-2.54 percent from -4.38 percent in the third quarter); construction (-6.03 percent from -6.13 percent), trade (-1.44 percent from -1.38 percent) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-5.16 percent from -6.68 percent). In addition, output rose less for agriculture (4.03 percent compared to 4.54 percent). The non-oil sector accounted for 92.85 percent of the GDP up from 91.94 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 4.09 percent slowing from 8.99 percent in the previous quarter.

Considering full 2016, industrial output drove the contraction (down 8.53 percent), followed by services (down 0.82 percent) while agriculture sector expanded (up 4.11 percent). The oil sector shrank 13.65 percent, following a 5.45 percent drop in 2015, reducing the oil sector share in GDP to 8.42 percent from 9.61 percent. The country produced 1.833 million barrels a day in 2016, down from 2.13 mbpd in 2015. In addition to lower oil prices, Nigeria faced several contraints including pipeline vandalism, fuel shortages and lower electricity generation that dragged oil and industrial production down.

National Bureau of Statistics | Deborah Neves | deborah.neves@tradingeconomics.com
2/28/2017 11:22:02 AM