India's GDP Growth Slows to 4.5% in Q4


India's quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14,11,594 crore, as against Rs. 13,51,252 crore in Q3 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 4.5 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2012-13 over Q3 of 2011-12 are: financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 7.9 percent, construction at 5.8 percent,  community, social & personal services at 5.4 percent, trade, hotels, transport and  communication at 5.1 per cent and ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 4.5 percent. The growth  rate in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying and manufacturing is estimated at  1.1 percent, (-) 1.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively in this period. 

According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 8.2.2013 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2012-13, the production of coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2012-13 is estimated to have declined by 4.8 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively over the  corresponding season in the previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is estimated to have declined by 5.9 per cent during the Kharif season of 2012-13, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is expected to  decline by  7.3 per cent and  4.0 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture year 2012-13. However, horticulture crops, livestock products are expected to grow at 3.5 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.
 
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 3.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent  and 4.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 4.2 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 9.6 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2011-12.  In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 1.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent in Q3 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of  1.1 per cent and  (-) 4.1 per cent in Q3 of  2011-12. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel production registered growth rates of 2.7 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13.
 
Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 0.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and  passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 4.7 per cent, (-) 2.7 per cent, (-) 5.0 per cent and (-)5.9 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13 over Q3 of 2011-12.  The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits  have shown growth rates of  11.1 per cent and 15.2 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12.

MOSPI, Anna Fedec, contact@tradingeconomics.com
2/28/2013 11:41:11 AM