Fed Worried About Hiking Rates Too Soon


Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concern that raising interest rates too soon could hamper U.S. economic recovery and were debating changes to policy tools when the rates would be increased, the January FOMC minutes showed.

The officials maintained that a decision on when to raise rates would remain dependent on economic data. From one side, a deterioration in the economic situation abroad and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine pose downside risks to the outlook for U.S. economy growth. On the other hand, lower oil prices and actions of foreign central banks both being supportive of growth abroad.

The Committee was also concerned about the impact that stubbornly low inflation  was having on the central bank's confidence in moving ahead with raising rates.

The Fed officials were also debating raising the cap temporarily on the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RPP) implemented last year to supplement two other more familiar policy rates when the time comes to lift borrowing costs.

Extracts from the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in January:

Participants discussed considerations related to the choice of the appropriate timing of the initial firming in monetary policy and pace of subsequent rate increases.

Participants discussed the tradeoffs between the risks that would be associated with departing from the effective lower bound later and those that would be associated with departing earlier. Several participants noted that a late departure could result in the stance of monetary policy becoming excessively accommodative, leading to undesirably high inflation. It was also suggested that maintaining the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for an extended period or raising it rapidly, if that proved necessary, could adversely affect financial stability. Some participants were concerned that a decision to delay the commencement of tightening could be perceived as indicating that an overly accommodative policy is likely to prevail during the firming phase. In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. In addition, an earlier tightening would increase the likelihood that the Committee might be forced by adverse economic outcomes to return the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound. Some participants noted the communications challenges associated with the prospect of commencing policy tightening at a time when inflation could be running well below 2 percent, and a few expressed concern that in some circumstances the public could come to question the credibility of the Committee's 2 percent goal. Indeed, one participant recommended that, in light of the outlook for inflation, the Committee consider ways to use its tools to provide more, not less, accommodation.

Participants discussed the communications challenges associated with signaling, when it becomes appropriate to do so, that policy normalization is likely to begin relatively soon while remaining clear that the Committee's actions would depend on incoming data. Many participants regarded dropping the "patient" language in the statement, whenever that might occur, as risking a shift in market expectations for the beginning of policy firming toward an unduly narrow range of dates. As a result, some expressed the concern that financial markets might overreact, resulting in undesirably tight financial conditions.


Fed Worried About Hiking Rates Too Soon


Federal Reserve | anna@tradingeconomics.com
2/18/2015 7:40:19 PM