Italy Inflation Rate Eases to 13-Month Low in January


Italian consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.8 percent year-on-year in January of 2018, following a 0.9 percent gain in the previous month and in line with market expectations. It is the lowest inflation rate since December of 2016, as prices slowed for food, mostly unprocessed food and transport.

Year-on-year, prices are expected to advance at a softer pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.3 percent compared to 1.5 percent in December), of which unprocessed food (0.1 percent compared to 2.4 percent) while processed food including alcohol went up faster (2.3 percent compared to 0.8 percent). In addition, cost is likely to slow for transport (1.6 percent compared to 2.8 percent) and restaurants and hotels (1.0 percent compared to 1.1 percent). Also, cost of health is expected to fall (-0.3 percent compared to 0.1 percent). On the other hand, prices are likely to rise further for housing and utilities (2.5 percent compared to 1.9 percent), as a result of higher price pressure of regulated energy products (5.2 percent compared to 3.7 percent). Additionally, cost is expected to increase at a faster pace for miscellaneous goods and services (1.1 percent compared to 0.6 percent) and recreation and culture (1.3 percent compared to 0.5 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food is expected to advance further 0.6 percent from a 0.4 percent rise in the prior month. Excluding only energy, the inflation is likely to remain steady at 0.6 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to ease 0.2 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase in December and below consensus.

The harmonized index is likely to fall 1.6 percent on the month (from a 0.3 percent gain in December) and rise sligthly to 1.1 percent on the year from 1.0 percent in the previous month.

Italy Inflation Rate Eases to 13-Month Low in January


Istat | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
2/2/2018 10:42:44 AM