Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated foreign trade report, after it had been delayed for almost a month due to the partial government shutdown, with market forecasts pointing to a narrowing trade deficit in November. Meanwhile, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely to decline in January to a six-month low; and factory orders are expected to post a slight recovery in November after October's biggest decline since July 2017. Elsewhere, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of India; China Services PMI; and Germany industrial production will also be in the spotlight.

Other important figures for the US are: consumer credit, Q4 labor productivity, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and final Markit Services PMI will also be keenly watched. New dates have yet to be announced for the advance Q4 GDP report, the December personal income and spending data, the December retail trade figures, and the December building permits and housing starts.

Other important releases for America include Canada employment figures, trade balance and Ivey PMI; and Brazil and Mexico inflation rates for January. In addition, the central banks of Brazil and Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK, the Bank of England will meet to set monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs as Brexit uncertainties remain and as Prime Minister Theresa May heads to Brussels to win concessions from the EU on the Brexit withdrawal agreement. On the economic data front, Markit PMIs for construction and service sectors; Halifax House Price Index and new car sales will be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors await the Eurozone producer inflation, retail trade data and final Market Services PMI; Germany industrial output, factory orders and trade balance; Spain and Italy January's Markit Services PMI; France trade balance and industrial production; Italy retail trade and industrial output; Turkey consumer prices; Norway Q4 GDP growth; and Switzerland unemployment rate. The central banks of Russia and Poland will also hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. 

China will be releasing its Caixin Services and Composite PMIs, providing an update on services and overall private sector activity during January; and Japan will be publishing Nikkei Services PMI and current account. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hold its cash rate at current levels when it meets on Tuesday. The country will also be releasing trade figures, building permits, retail sales and AIG services and construction indexes. Also, market players will keep an eye on the latest interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India, with markets anticipating no changes. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate; India Nikkei Services PMI; Indonesia Q4 and full year GDP figures; and central bank meetings in Thailand and the Philippines.

China’s stock market will be closed from February 4th to 8th and Hong Kong’s market from 5th to 7th due to the Lunar New Year holidays.

Week Ahead

Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
2/2/2019 11:32:51 AM