860 thousand American workers are expected to have filed unemployment benefits during the week ending October 17th, compared to almost two months high of 898 thousand in the previous week. It would be the 8th consecutive week with claims remaining elevated above 800 thousand, pointing to a slow labor market recovery. Claims in California will remain at the level reported last week as the state is trying to reduce processing backlog and implement fraud prevention technology. Meanwhile, continuing claims are projected to fall below 10 Million for the first time since March 28th, but still will remain much above 1.7 Million average reported before the pandemic.

Crude oil futures rose over 0.6% to trade around $40.2 a barrel on Thursday, as data from the EIA showed crude oil inventories in the US dropped for the second consecutive week. The latest report from the EIA showed US crude oil stockpiles fell by 1,001 million barrels in the week ended October 16th. However, the gains were capped by mounting worries over fuel demand recovery as the number of coronavirus infections continue to rise worldwide. At the same time, supply concerns weighed on sentiment as Libyan oil exports are quickly accelerating into October as loading restarts following the easing of a blockade by eastern forces.

Turkey's consumer confidence indicator edged down 0.1 points from the previous month to 81.9 in October of 2020, remaining well above a record low of 54.9 hit in April. There was a deterioration in expectations over the next 12 months regarding the general economic situation (81.4 vs 83.3 in September); and the financial situation at present also decreased (69.4 vs 71.8). On the other hand, the financial situation expectation of household index in the next 12 months period (79.5 vs 79.1) and savings propensity (21.7 vs 19.9) improved.

The dollar index traded nearly flat around 92.7 on Thursday, moving further away from a 1-1/2- month low of 92.474 touched earlier in the week amid uncertainty about a new stimulus bill in the US. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed to announce a deal on Wednesday and will speak again on Thursday, raising odds an agreement before the presidential election in less than 2 weeks is unlikely. The dollar has been weakening since mid-May and is down near 5% on the year amid rising optimism about the global economic recovery, specially a robust rebound in China.

Europe is deep in the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, with cases in both Spain and France surpassing 1 million. Also, infections continue to hit record daily highs in Germany (+12,331); the UK (+26,688); Italy (+15,199); Russia (+15,700); Czech Republic (+14,968) and Greece (+865). European leaders across the continent introduced new restrictions to curb the spread of the disease, with a combination of nationwide and specific regional measures and curfews. Rome and the surrounding region become the latest to impose a curfew, France is expected to extend curfew measures and Spain is also considering curfews in hard-hit regions like Madrid. On a more positive note, the US trial of vaccines made by AstraZeneca and J&J may resume this week. Globally, the number of people infected with the coronavirus surpassed 41.2M, of which at least 1.13M people have died and 28.12M have recovered, according to data released by the Johns Hopkins University.

The Shanghai Composite fell 12.52 points or 0.38% to 3312.5 on Thursday following a 0.09% decline yesterday. Market participants tracked US equities lower after the IMF on Wednesday downgraded its forecast for Asia-Pacific region to a contraction of 2.2% in 2020, noting the worst outcome for this region in living memory. The news follows reports that the FBI had identified attempts by Russia and Iran to interfere in the upcoming US election. Meantime, the Hang Seng Index added 32 points or 0.1% to 24786, booking 5 consecutive sessions of gain. China’s top security regulator approved the Shanghai leg of Ant Group’s dual IPO, the final hurdle for what is likely to be the world’s biggest IPO ever with the company set to split its stock issuance equally across Shanghai and Hong Kong.

European stock markets extended losses on Thursday, with Frankfurt's DAX 30 touching its lowest level since September 25th, as rising COVID-19 cases across Europe and the lack of progress in US stimulus negotiations continued to worry investors. The number of infections rose at record rates in several countries, with Spain and France becoming the first Western European countries to exceed 1 million infections. At the same time, US House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin failed to unveil a deal on a new aid bill on Wednesday and will speak again on Thursday. On the economic data front, German consumer morale deteriorated heading into November, and came in weaker than market expectations. On the corporate front, better-than-expected quarterly results from Unilever and Pernod Ricard helped to curb the losses. Hermes, Michelin, L’Oreal and ST Micro are also expected to release earnings.

The manufacturing climate indicator in France went down to 93 in October of 2020 from a downwardly revised 94 in September and below forecasts of 96 remaining below pre-pandemic levels and the long-term average of 100. The deterioration reflects lower production expectations (-12 vs -3) and overall order-books (-36 vs -34), partly offset by an improvement in past production (15 vs 7).

The Nikkei 225 moved 165.19 points or 0.7% lower to 23474.27 on Thursday, retreating from 8-month highs reached in the previous session. Risk appetite weakened amid lingering stimulus uncertainties after United States President Donald Trump expressed skepticism that an agreement could be reached with Democratic leaders on a new round of coronavirus aid relief. The news follows Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s call for further fiscal support from Congress, noting that more stimulus is needed to address a recovery that has left out large parts of the economy. Among individual stocks, ANA Holdings Inc ended down 4.08%, trading at the lowest level in more than two months after reports that the company will book a record net loss as the pandemic devastates global travel.