Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index rose 1.3 points to 46.2 in October 2026 from September. Despite the improvement, the index remained below the 50-point threshold, marking 22 consecutive months of pessimism in the industrial sector. The increase was driven entirely by improved expectations, particularly regarding companies’ own business conditions. The Expectations Index climbed 2.1 points to 49.3, with the component measuring expectations for companies’ own business conditions rising 1.0 point to 52.3. Expectations for Brazil’s economy increased 4.3 points to 43.4. Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index fell 0.2 point to 40.0, its lowest level since July 2020. The decline reflected a more negative assessment of companies’ own conditions, with that component dropping 0.5 point to 43.3. In contrast, the assessment of Brazil’s economic conditions rose 0.3 point to 33.3.

US stocks were lower on Wednesday amid hot inflation data and continued volatility in the AI infrastructure sector. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped nearly 1%, while the Dow was flat. Chip producers extended this week's losses as ASML stated it could not keep up with fab demand, while Chinese competitors introduced improved products approaching the capabilities of US and Korean firms. Meanwhile, headline and core inflation prints solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate hike this year. AMD and Intel fell 3%, while Dell, SanDisk, and Palo Alto Networks sank between 3% and 7%. Among financial companies, Bank of America tanked over 7% as both its equity and fixed-income trading revenues missed estimates. Morgan Stanley was 1% higher after its equity trading revenue topped forecasts, and BlackRock edged up after pulling in more capital in its asset management business, boosting fee revenue.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged 9bps to 5.3% on Wednesday, approaching again highs last seen in early 2002, after the latest US inflation report came in hotter than expected. While higher energy prices were the main driver, the data also pointed to relatively broad-based inflationary pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 3.7%, above forecasts of 3.6%, while the annual core inflation rate edged up to 2.6%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%. Monthly core CPI inflation also came in above forecasts at 0.3%. The report strengthened expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike this month, with the probability of such a move rising to around 50%, up from approximately 22% before the release.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up 1 basis points to 7.5% in the week ended October 9, 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. It marked an eighth straight weekly increase, bringing the cumulative rise to 141 basis points since US-Israeli strikes against Iran began in late February. Borrowing costs continue to track elevated US Treasury yields amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation under control. This upward movement has weighed heavily on the housing sector. Total mortgage applications fell 2.7%, extending their decline to a sixth consecutive week. Refinancing applications dropped 0.4%, while purchase applications fell 4%.

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,020 per tonne in October, the lowest level year-to-date, fully erasing the rally since the start of the war between Iran and the US amid a stronger dollar and ample supply outside the Middle East. Aluminum smelting infrastructure in the Middle East was restarted at a faster pace than previously signaled following damage to facilities and operational halts caused by disruptions to natural gas production chains in the region. Emirates Global Aluminium said that a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations. In addition, Rio Tinto secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operational through the end of 2031, further boosting supply prospects. Also, China's exports have increased sharply in the period despite the 30% export duty faced by primary aluminum smelters, which drives secondary producers to focus on foreign markets. Alloy export volumes doubled y-o-y to 4.46 million tons through August.

China’s trade surplus widened to $133.53 billion in September 2026, up from $88.72 billion a year earlie, surpassing forecasts of $118.1 billion, and marking the 2nd largest surplus after $137.9 billion record hit in January 2025. Exports jumped 36.3% yoy to $447.18 billion, above estimates of 25.5% and marking the strongest growth in 7 months, as the global AI infrastructure boom continued to sustain strong demand for Chinese high-tech products. Imports jumped 31% yoy to a record high of $313.66 billion, beating forecasts of 24.5%. Pressure from the US and the EU for China to address its industrial overcapacity and surging trade surplus has yet to materially dent Beijing's overall export performance, with shipments to US surging 39.56% yoy and the trade surplus with the US rising to $34 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $938.11 billion, putting the annual figure on track to surpass last year's record of $1.2 trillion.