WTI crude oil rose as much as 4% to above $95 per barrel as doubts resurfaced over ongoing US–Iran negotiations. It is reported that the peace talks now point to diminished prospects for a broad agreement and opening of the Strait of Hormuz and are now focused on securing a temporary memorandum to avoid renewed conflict. Meanwhile, benchmark prices showed little immediate reaction after President Trump said Israeli and Lebanese leaders had agreed to begin a 10-day ceasefire starting Thursday. Further supporting prices, signs of tightening supply are emerging. After seven consecutive weeks of builds, US crude inventories fell by 9.13 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 154,000-barrel increase, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Industrial production in the United States dropped 0.5% month-over-month in March 2026, missing market expectations for a 0.1% gain and after moving up 0.7% in February. It marks the biggest fall in industrial activity since September 2024. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, decreased 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in February and also missing forecast of a 0.1% gain. Mining output fell 1.2% in March. The index for utilities contracted 2.3%, with reductions in the output of both electric and natural gas utilities. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April 2026 from 18.1 in the prior month, hitting its strongest level since January 2025. The data surprised analysts on the upside, comfortably exceeding expectations for a drop to 10. The current shipments index rose 12 points to 34.0, while the index for current new orders jumped 24 points to 33.0. Meanwhile, the employment index fell 6 points to -5.1 in April. Both price indexes increased for the second month, continuing to run well above their long-term averages and marking their highest levels since August. The prices paid index rose 15 points to 59.3 in April, while the current prices received index rose 12 points to 33.5. Looking forward, the firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators have moved down.

The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 207K in the week ended April 11th 2026 from a downwardly revised 218K in the previous week which was the highest value since early February. The figure came in below forecasts of 215K, marking the largest weekly decline since February and signaling that layoffs remain limited, as both the labour market and the broader economy continue to demonstrate resilience. The 4-week moving average which excludes week-to-week volatility was 209,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 209.25K. Meanwhile, continuing claims which are seen as a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, went up to 1818K in the week ended April 4th, an increase of 31K from the previous week's revised level.

Brazil's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month in February 2026, following a 0.8% gain in January and largely in line with forecasts of 0.5%. The industrial sector led expansion, up 1.2% after a 0.4% rise in January, followed by the taxes index, up 0.8% after a 0.5% gain. Agriculture and livestock rebounded 0.2% after contracting 1.5% in January, while the services sector rose 0.3% following a 0.8% gain. On an annual basis, the index contracted 1.3% in February.

ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.